UID:
edocfu_9958057710702883
Format:
1 online resource (58 p.)
ISBN:
1-4623-6380-6
,
1-4552-1535-X
,
1-283-56083-6
,
1-4552-1032-3
,
9786613873286
Series Statement:
IMF working papers ; WP/10/240
Content:
We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more countercyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.
Note:
"October 2010."
,
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. Data, Definitions, and Descriptive Statistics; A. Data and Definitions of Aid and Business Cycle Variables; B. Data Exploration: Descriptive Statistics; IV. The Baseline Model and Main Empirical Results; A. The Baseline Model and Estimation Method; B. Aid and the Donor Cycle; C. Aid and the Recipient Cycle; D. Dynamic Effects; E. Aid and Donor-Recipient (Pair-wise) Shocks; V. Extensions and Robustness Analysis; A. Extensions; Aid and the Business Cycle: A Non-linear Relationship
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Aid and Donor Public DebtAid and Institutions in Recipient Countries; The Impact of IMF Programs and Other Regressors; B. Robustness Analysis; Gross Aid Flows; Tobit with Random Effects; Accounting for Aid Persistence; Post-Cold War Changes in Aid Regime; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; Figure 1. Bilateral ODA, 1970-2008; Figure 2. Geographical composition of bilateral net ODA, 1970-2007; Table 1. Variable definitions and sources; Table 2. List of countries; Figure 3. Distribution of output gap estimates; Table 3. Summary statistics
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Figure 4. Correlation coefficients between the business cycle and aidFigure 5. Yearly probability of a large shock in aid-receiving countries, 1970-2004; Figure 6. Conditional empirical relationship between the donor output gap and aid flows; Table 4. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the donor cycle; Table 5. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the donor cycle (large shocks); Table 6. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the recipient cycle; Table 7. Aid flows and the recipient cycle (large shocks); Table 8. Aid flows and the donor business cycle (dynamic effects)
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Table 9. Aid flows and the recipient business cycle (dynamic effects)Table 10. Aid flows and simultaneous shocks (contemporaneous effects); Table 11. Aid flows and donor public debt (dynamic effects); Table 12. Aid and institutions in recipient countries; Table 13. Aid flows and the business cycle: Augmented specifications; Table 14. Robustness: Gross aid flows; Table 15. Robustness: Tobit with Random Effects; Table 16. Robustness: Accounting for aid persistence; Table 17. Robustness: Post-Cold War aid regime; References; Footnotes
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4552-0940-6
Language:
English
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