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  • 1
    Language: English
    In: Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science, April 2015, Vol.178(2), pp.199-208
    Description: Global change scenarios predict an increased risk for declining amounts of soil organic matter (SOM) for Central Germany. Within this region the production of bioenergy is one important strategy to counteract the rising anthropogenic CO‐emissions. Both issues have a close connection: SOM is an important basis for soil productivity and requires a steady reproduction flux. Bioenergy production requires productive soils and partly consumes plant biomass C. Therefore, the available amount for SOM reproduction is reduced. This study provides a methodology for the large‐scale identification of areas with possible conflicts between bioenergy production and SOM reproduction based on (1) the prediction of climate change impact on SOM reproduction and (2) an analysis of the regional distribution of biogas plants. With the C demand index (CDI) and the capacity index (CAP), two indicators were developed which enable the identification of hot spots of high carbon demand for SOM reproduction due to climate change and the usage of bioenergy. As a result of low data requirements, the indicators are widely applicable and transferable to other large‐scale studies. The proposed methodology was applied to Central Germany as a pilot region. Results indicate a growing demand (10–40%) of fresh organic C from biomass for SOM production in comparison to the current level. The analysis reveals that the bioenergy C demand is not evenly distributed within the study region. It also shows some regional clustering. Furthermore, the analysis identifies certain hot spots of a high C demand, where a high capacity of biogas production may conflict with rising demands for biomass to mitigate climate change effects on SOM storage. The hot spot areas—identified and selected on a large scale—can subsequently be analyzed in more detail on a local to farm scale by using high‐resolution data and models which enable the quantification of soil C dynamics.
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Soil Organic Matter Reproduction ; Carbon Competition ; Bioenergy Crop Production ; Carbon Demand Index ; Capacity Index ; Bioenergy Production Units
    ISSN: 1436-8730
    E-ISSN: 1522-2624
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  • 2
    Language: English
    In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010, Vol.150(9), pp.1258-1271
    Description: Rainfed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from low productivity. Prolonged dry spells and droughts often lead to significant crop losses, a situation that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. In this study, the impact of climate change on attainable yields of maize and groundnut, as major alimentary crops in sub-Saharan Africa, is evaluated at five stations in Cameroon under rainfed conditions. It is focussed on the contribution of future climate change in terms of the direct fertilisation effect of the expected alteration and the indirect effects of the expected temperature and precipitation change. As improved agricultural management practices in rainfed systems are crucial to increase agricultural productivity, the impact of the planting date is analysed in detail. For this purpose, a fuzzy logic-based algorithm is developed to estimate the agriculturally relevant onset of the rainy season (ORS) and, thus, the optimal planting date. This algorithm is then connected to the physically based crop model , hereinafter referred to as . A Monte Carlo approach is used to optimise the ORS algorithm in terms of maximising the mean annual crop yields (1979–2003). The is applied to past and future periods, mainly for two reasons: (i) to derive optimal fuzzy rules and increase mean attainable crop yields; and (ii) to reliably estimate the impact of climate change to crop productivity with (‘optimal planting date scenario’) and without planting date adaptations (‘traditional planting date scenario’). It is shown that the fuzzy rules derived for assessing the optimal planting dates may allow for significantly increased crop yields compared to the existing planting rules in Cameroon under current climatic conditions, especially for the drier northern regions. A change in the climatic conditions due to global warming will reduce the growing cycle and, thus, the crop yields. However, the positive effect of fertilisation is likely to outweigh the negative effects of precipitation and temperature change for the 2020s and partly for the 2080s. When additionally considering planting date adaptations, groundnut yield is expected to increase for the 2020s and the 2080s, with maximum yield surpluses of about 30% for the 2020s compared to the extended baseline period. For maize, crop yield is likely to increase (decrease) for the 2020s (2080s) by approximately 15%. For the driest stations analysed, the negative impacts of temperature and precipitation change could be mitigated significantly by planting date adaptations.
    Keywords: Crop Modelling ; Cropsyst ; Monte Carlo Approach ; Onset of the Rainy Season ; Planting Date ; Climate Change ; Attainable Crop Yield ; Agriculture ; Meteorology & Climatology
    ISSN: 0168-1923
    E-ISSN: 1873-2240
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  • 3
    Language: English
    In: International journal of biometeorology, November 2016, Vol.60(11), pp.1711-1726
    Description: This study investigates whether the assumed increase of winter and spring temperatures is depicted by phenological models in correspondingly earlier bud burst (BB) dates. Some studies assume that rising temperatures lead to an earlier BB, but even later BB has been detected. The phenological model PIM (promoter-inhibitor-model) fitted to the extensive phenological database of the German Weather Service was driven by several climate scenarios. This model accounts for the complicated mechanistic interactions between chilling requirements, temperature and photo-period. It predicts BB with a r between 0.41 and 0.62 and a RMSE of around 1 week, depending on species. Parameter sensitivities depict species dependent interactions between growth and chilling requirements as well as photo-period. A mean trend to earlier BB was revealed for the period 2002- 2100, varying between -0.05 and -0.11 days per year, depending on species. These trends are lower than for the period 1951- 2009. Within climate scenario period, trends are decreasing for beech and chestnut, stagnating for birch and increasing for oak. Results suggest that not fulfilled chilling requirements accompanied by an increasing dependency on photo-period potentially limit future BB advancement. The combination of a powerful phenological model, a large scale phenological database and several climate scenarios, offers new insights into the mechanistic comprehension of spring phenology.
    Keywords: Bud Burst ; Climate Scenarios ; Deciduous Forest ; Phenology ; Photo-Period ; Trend ; Models, Theoretical ; Magnoliopsida -- Growth & Development ; Plant Leaves -- Growth & Development ; Trees -- Growth & Development
    ISSN: 00207128
    E-ISSN: 1432-1254
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  • 4
    Language: English
    In: Environmental Earth Sciences, 2017, Vol.76(1), pp.1-25
    Description: This article provides an overview about the Bode River catchment that was selected as the hydrological observatory and main region for hydro-ecological research within the TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories Harz/Central German Lowland Observatory. It first provides information about the general characteristics of the catchment including climate, geology, soils, land use, water quality and aquatic ecology, followed by the description of the interdisciplinary research framework and the monitoring concept with the main components of the multi-scale and multi-temporal monitoring infrastructure. It also shows examples of interdisciplinary research projects aiming to advance the understanding of complex hydrological processes under natural and anthropogenic forcings and their interactions in a catchment context. The overview is complemented with research work conducted at a number of intensive research sites, each focusing on a particular functional zone or specific components and processes of the hydro-ecological system.
    Keywords: Monitoring ; Catchment ; Water quality ; Observatory ; Water fluxes
    ISSN: 1866-6280
    E-ISSN: 1866-6299
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