Climatic Change, May, 2013, Vol.118(2), p.15(13)
Byline: Detlef P. Vuuren (1,2,4), Sebastiaan Deetman (1), Jasper Vliet (1), Maarten Berg (1), Bas J. Ruijven (3), Barbara Koelbl (2) Abstract: Limiting climate change to 2 degC with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO.sub.2 over the 2000--2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 degC target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO.sub.2/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO.sub.2/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0--4 GtCO.sub.2/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today's decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run. Author Affiliation: (1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands (2) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands (3) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA (4) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assesment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 26/12/2012 Received Date: 06/05/2012 Accepted Date: 23/12/2012 Online Date: 06/02/2013 Article note: This article is part of a Special Issue on "Carbon Dioxide Removal from the Atmosphere: Complementary Insights from Science and Modeling" edited by Massimo Tavoni, Robert Socolow, and Carlo Carraro.
Air Pollution Control -- Methods ; Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide -- Control
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