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  • 1
    Language: English
    In: Science (New York, N.Y.), 30 November 2018, Vol.362(6418), pp.1007-1008
    Keywords: Agriculture ; Conservation of Natural Resources
    ISSN: 00368075
    E-ISSN: 1095-9203
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  • 2
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Modelling, Feb 10, 2013, Vol.250, p.126(8)
    Description: To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.11.006 Byline: Niels Holst (a), Andreas Lang (b), Gabor Lovei (a), Mathias Otto (c) Keywords: Risk; GMO; Lepidoptera; Bt-maize; Simulation model; Dose-response Abstract: a* We modelled the phenology of Bt-maize pollen and Inachis io larvae. a* Second generation larvae coincided with the presence of Bt-maize pollen. a* The dose-response model of larvae on Bt-maize pollen predicted increased mortality. a* Our model differs in design from earlier models; it has more biological detail. a* Our model differs in predictions from earlier models; we found considerable effects. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Forsogsvej 1, 4200 Slagelse, Denmark (b) Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistrasse 30, 4056 Basel, Switzerland (c) Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, Konstantinstra[sz]e 110, 53179 Bonn, Germany Article History: Received 6 July 2012; Revised 30 October 2012; Accepted 1 November 2012
    Keywords: Butterflies -- Analysis ; Butterflies -- Models ; Butterflies -- Health Aspects ; Mortality -- Analysis ; Mortality -- Models ; Nature Conservation -- Analysis ; Nature Conservation -- Models ; Nature Conservation -- Health Aspects
    ISSN: 0304-3800
    Source: Cengage Learning, Inc.
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  • 3
    Language: English
    In: Science of the Total Environment, 01 September 2018, Vol.635, pp.687-698
    Description: The aquatic environment is strongly connected to the surrounding agricultural landscapes, which regularly serve as sources of stressors such as agrochemicals. Genetically modified crops, which are cultivated on a large scale in many countries, may also act as stressors. Despite the commercial use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) for over 20 years, their impact on the aquatic environment came into focus only 10 years ago. We present the status quo of the available scientific data in order to provide an input for informed aquatic risk assessment of GMOs. We could identify only 39 publications, including 84 studies, dealing with GMOs in the aquatic environment, and our analysis shows substantial knowledge gaps. The available information is restricted to a small number of crop plants, traits, events, and test organisms. The analysis of effect studies reveals that only a narrow range of organisms has been tested and that studies on combinatorial actions of stressors are virtually absent. The analysis of fate studies shows that many aspects, such as the fate of leached toxins, degradation of plant material, and distribution of crop residues in the aquatic habitat, are insufficiently investigated. Together with these research needs, we identify standardization of test methods as an issue of high priority, both for research and risk assessment needed for GMO regulation.
    Keywords: Genetically Modified Crops ; Aquatic Ecosystems ; Environmental Risk Assessment ; Non-Target Effects ; Bt Toxin ; Environmental Sciences ; Biology ; Public Health
    ISSN: 0048-9697
    E-ISSN: 1879-1026
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  • 4
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Modelling, 10 March 2018, Vol.371, pp.50-59
    Description: The cultivation of maize, genetically modified to be resistant to insect pests, has led to intense scientific and political debate about its possible adverse impacts on biodiversity. To better address this question we developed an individual-based simulation model ( ). considers the temporal dynamics of maize pollen shedding and larval phenology, and pollen deposition on host plants related to distance from the maize field, in order to estimate mortality of lepidopteran larvae exposed to toxic pollen. We employed a refined exposure analysis, comparison to previous approaches, using recent evidence on leaf pollen deposition and accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of pollen on leaves. Moreover, we used a stochastic approach, considering literature data on a minimum dataset for butterfly biology in combination with historic data on temporal pollen deposition to predict the coincidence between larval phenology and pollen deposition. Since conservation management actions may act at the level of the individual for protected species, , as an individual based spatially explicit model, is suited to assist both risk assessment and management measures based on threshold mortalities. We tested our model using (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) as butterfly species and the cultivation of insect resistant MON810 maize. In accordance to predictions based on other models we identified mortality risks of larvae for the second larval generation. An analysis of the sensitivity of input parameters stressed the importance of both the slope and the LC value of the dose-response curve as well as the earliest day of larval hatching. Using different published data to characterize the dose-response of MON810 pollen to we revealed consequences due to uncertainties in ecotoxicological parameters and thus highlight the importance of key biological parameters for reliable estimates of effects, and decision making (e.g. isolation distances) in risk assessment.
    Keywords: Simulation Model ; Individual-Based Model ; Lepidoptera ; Gmo ; Bt Maize ; Risk Assessment ; Environmental Sciences ; Ecology
    ISSN: 0304-3800
    E-ISSN: 1872-7026
    Source: ScienceDirect Journals (Elsevier)
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  • 5
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Modelling, 10 September 2013, Vol.265, pp.250-250
    Keywords: Environmental Sciences ; Ecology
    ISSN: 0304-3800
    E-ISSN: 1872-7026
    Source: ScienceDirect Journals (Elsevier)
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  • 6
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Modelling, 10 February 2013, Vol.250, pp.126-133
    Description: ► We modelled the phenology of Bt-maize pollen and larvae. ► Second generation larvae coincided with the presence of Bt-maize pollen. ► The dose–response model of larvae on Bt-maize pollen predicted increased mortality. ► Our model differs in design from earlier models; it has more biological detail. ► Our model differs in predictions from earlier models; we found considerable effects. A potential environmental risk of the field cultivation of insect-resistant (Bt-toxin expressing) transgenic maize ( ) is the consumption of Bt-containing pollen by herbivorous larvae of butterflies (Lepidoptera). Maize is wind-pollinated, and at flowering time large amounts of pollen can be deposited on various plants growing in the landscape, leading to inadvertent ingestion of toxic pollen with plant biomass consumed by these butterfly larvae. To examine the possible effect of this coincidence, we focused our study on the protected butterfly and two regions of Europe. Using climatic records, maize and butterfly phenology data, we built a simulation model of the butterfly's annual life cycle, overlaid with the phenology of maize pollen deposition on the leaves of the food plant , and linked these with the dose–response curve of larvae to Bt-maize pollen (event MON810). The simulations indicated that in Northern Europe, where is univoltine, Bt-maize pollen would not be present on the food plant at the same time as the larvae. However, in Central and Southern Europe, where is bivoltine, Bt-maize pollen and the second generation larvae would coincide, and an increased mortality of the larvae was predicted. This prediction differs from earlier studies which predicted negligible effect of field-grown Bt-maize on larvae. Our model is an improvement over previous efforts since it is based on more detailed, empirical data, includes more biological detail, and provides explicit estimation of all model parameters. The model is open-source software and is available for re-use and for modelling the effects on other species or regions.
    Keywords: Risk ; Gmo ; Lepidoptera ; Bt-Maize ; Simulation Model ; Dose–Response ; Environmental Sciences ; Ecology
    ISSN: 0304-3800
    E-ISSN: 1872-7026
    Source: ScienceDirect Journals (Elsevier)
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  • 7
    Language: English
    In: Ecological modelling, 2013, Vol.250, pp.126-133
    Description: A potential environmental risk of the field cultivation of insect-resistant (Bt-toxin expressing) transgenic maize (Zea mays) is the consumption of Bt-containing pollen by herbivorous larvae of butterflies (Lepidoptera). Maize is wind-pollinated, and at flowering time large amounts of pollen can be deposited on various plants growing in the landscape, leading to inadvertent ingestion of toxic pollen with plant biomass consumed by these butterfly larvae. To examine the possible effect of this coincidence, we focused our study on the protected butterfly Inachis io and two regions of Europe. Using climatic records, maize and butterfly phenology data, we built a simulation model of the butterfly's annual life cycle, overlaid with the phenology of maize pollen deposition on the leaves of the food plant Urtica dioica, and linked these with the dose–response curve of I. io larvae to Bt-maize pollen (event MON810). The simulations indicated that in Northern Europe, where I. io is univoltine, Bt-maize pollen would not be present on the food plant at the same time as the I. io larvae. However, in Central and Southern Europe, where I. io is bivoltine, Bt-maize pollen and the second generation I. io larvae would coincide, and an increased mortality of the larvae was predicted. This prediction differs from earlier studies which predicted negligible effect of field-grown Bt-maize on I. io larvae. Our model is an improvement over previous efforts since it is based on more detailed, empirical data, includes more biological detail, and provides explicit estimation of all model parameters. The model is open-source software and is available for re-use and for modelling the effects on other species or regions. ; p. 126-133.
    Keywords: Univoltine Habit ; Flowering ; Biomass ; Prediction ; Urtica Dioica ; Agricultural Land ; Phenology ; Simulation Models ; Leaves ; Corn ; Risk ; Inachis Io ; Computer Software ; Ingestion ; Pollen ; Toxicity ; Butterflies ; Zea Mays ; Food Plants ; Mortality ; Genetically Modified Organisms ; Insect Larvae ; Landscapes
    ISSN: 0304-3800
    Source: AGRIS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)
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  • 8
    In: Computer Graphics Forum, May 2010, Vol.29(2), pp.347-356
    Description: We introduce an approach to visualize stationary 2D vector fields with global uncertainty obtained by considering the transport of local uncertainty in the flow. For this, we extend the concept of vector field topology to uncertain vector fields by considering the vector field as a density distribution function. By generalizing the concepts of stream lines and critical points we obtain a number of density fields representing an uncertain topological segmentation. Their visualization as height surfaces gives insight into both the flow behavior and its uncertainty. We present a Monte Carlo approach where we integrate probabilistic particle paths, which lead to the segmentation of topological features. Moreover, we extend our algorithms to detect saddle points and present efficient implementations. Finally, we apply our technique to a number of real and synthetic test data sets.
    Keywords: Algorithms;
    ISSN: 0167-7055
    E-ISSN: 1467-8659
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  • 9
    Language: English
    In: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Nov 9, 2015
    Description: Stacked GM crops expressing up to six Cry toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) are today replacing the formerly grown single-transgene GM crop varieties. Stacking of multiple Cry toxins not only increase the environmental load of toxins but also raise the question on how possible interactions of the toxins can be assessed for risk assessment, which is mandatory for GM crops. However, no operational guidelines for a testing strategy or testing procedures exist. From the developers point of view, little data testing for combinatorial effects of Cry toxins is necessary as the range of possibly affected organisms focuses on pest species and no evidence is claimed to exist pointing to combinatorial effects on non-target organisms. We have examined this rationale critically using information reported in the scientific literature. To do so, we address the hypothesis of narrow specificity of Cry toxins subdivided into three underlying different conceptual conditions (i) “efficacy” in target pests as indicator for “narrow specificity,” (ii) lack of reported adverse effects of Cry toxins on non-target organisms, and (iii) proposed modes of action of Cry toxins (or the lack thereof) as mechanisms underlying the reported activity/efficacy/specificity of Cry toxins. Complementary to this information, we evaluate reports about outcomes of combinatorial effect testing of Cry toxins in the scientific literature and relate those findings to the practice of environmental risk assessment of Bt-crops in general and of stacked Bt-events in particular.
    Keywords: Risk Assessment – Environmental Aspects ; Genetically Modified Crops – Environmental Aspects ; Environmental Toxicology – Environmental Aspects
    ISSN: 2296-665X
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  • 10
    Language: English
    In: Insects, 01 August 2015, Vol.6(3), pp.760-771
    Description: Non-target butterfly larvae may be harmed by feeding on host plants dusted with Bt maize pollen. Feeding patterns of larvae and their utilization of host plants can affect the adverse Bt impact because the maize pollen is distributed unequally on the plant. In a field study, we investigated the feeding of larvae of the Small Tortoiseshell, Aglais urticae, on nettles, Urtica dioica. Young larvae used smaller host plants than older larvae. In general, the position of the larvae was in the top part of the host plant, but older larvae showed a broader vertical distribution on the nettles. Leaf blades and leaf tips were the plant parts most often consumed. Leaf veins were consumed but midribs were fed on to a lesser extent than other plant veins, particularly by young larvae. The feeding behavior of the larvae may increase possible exposure to Bt maize pollen because pollen densities are expected to be higher on the top parts and along leaf veins of nettles.
    Keywords: Genetically Modified Plants ; Transgenic Crop ; Pollen Drift ; Risk Assessment ; Non-Target Butterfly ; Zoology
    E-ISSN: 2075-4450
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