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  • Harpke, A
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  • 1
    Language: English
    In: Biological Conservation, August 2017, Vol.212, pp.216-229
    Description: Responses of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) to climate change remain mostly unexplored. Here, for the first time, we investigate the impact of climate change on both presence/absence and abundances of hoverfly species. We used generalized linear models to analyse the relationships of climatic and soil variables with the occurrence and abundance of species on the Balkan Peninsula. Our results show that the ranges of all and the abundances of many species are projected to decrease in the future. Climatically suitable conditions for mountainous species are predicted to generally shift northwards. Species adapted to high mountains are projected to almost vanish from the Balkans and only regions of the Alps would remain suitable for them. We found climatic variables were more important in determining abundance than occurrence. Given that environmental factors differed in terms of their impact on abundance and occurrence, we highlight the importance of monitoring both parameters to ensure effective conservation. Considering the different projected responses of hoverflies to future climate change, as well as their value as pollinators and the increasing threats they currently face, knowledge on their responses to the major drivers of their life-histories is indispensable for proper management and conservation action. We reveal that nationally-designated protected areas are insufficient to conserve the species considered here, both currently and under projected climate change. We recommend implementation of an integrated conservation management plan that can provide a continuum of protected areas along the Dinaric mountain chain to facilitate movement of species to enhance species survival.
    Keywords: Abundance ; Climate Change ; Species Distribution Modeling ; Syrphids ; Pollinator Conservation ; Agriculture ; Biology ; Ecology
    ISSN: 0006-3207
    E-ISSN: 18732917
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  • 2
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Indicators, June 2016, Vol.65, pp.44-54
    Description: Succession is a key ecological process that supports our understanding of community assembly and biotic interactions. Dispersal potential and dispersal strategies, such as wind- or animal-dispersal, have been assumed to be highly relevant for the success of plant species during succession. However, research yielded varying results on changes in dispersal modes between successional stages. Here, we test the hypotheses that (a) vascular plant species that use a number of dispersal modes dominate in early stages of succession while species specialized on one/few dispersal modes increase in abundance towards later stages of succession; (b) species well adapted to wind-dispersal (anemochory) will peak in abundance in early successional stages and (c) species well adapted to adhesive dispersal (epizoochory) will increase with proceeding succession. We test these hypotheses in four sites within agriculturally dominated landscapes in Germany. Agricultural use in these sites was abandoned 20–28 years ago, leaving them to secondary succession. Sites have been monitored for plant biodiversity ever since. We analyze changes in plant species richness and abundance, number of dispersal modes and two ranking indices for wind- and adhesive dispersal by applying generalized linear mixed-effect models. We used both abundance-weighted and unweighted dispersal traits in order to gain a comprehensive picture of successional developments. Hypothesis (a) was supported by unweighted but not abundance-weighted data. Anemochory showed no consistent changes across sites. In contrast, epizoochory (especially when not weighted by abundance) turned out to be an indicator of the transition from early to mid-successional stages. It increased for the first 9–16 years of succession but declined afterwards. Species richness showed an opposing pattern, while species abundance increased asymptotically. We suggest that plant-animal interactions play a key role in mediating these processes: By importing seeds of highly competitive plant species, animals are likely to promote the increasing abundance of a few dominant, highly epizoochorous species. These species outcompete weak competitors and species richness decreases. However, animals should as well promote the subsequent increase of species richness by disturbing the sites and creating small open patches. These patches are colonized by weaker competitors that are not necessarily dispersed by animals. The changes in the presence of epizoochorous species indicate the importance of plant traits and related plant–animal interactions in the succession of plant communities.
    Keywords: Anemochory Ranking Index ; Community Assembly ; Epizoochory Ranking Index ; Functional Traits ; Long-Term Ecological Research ; Environmental Sciences
    ISSN: 1470-160X
    E-ISSN: 1872-7034
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  • 3
    Language: English
    In: ZooKeys, Jan 6, 2014, Issue 367, p.65(20)
    Description: Detailed information on species' ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the 'Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe') and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species' range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species' range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications. It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator. Keywords: Climate change, climate warming, CTI, global change, global warming, modelling, risk, trend, STI, Europe, butterflies, Lepidoptera, Papilionidae, Pieridae, Lycaenidae, Riodinidae, Nymphalidae, Hesperiidae
    Keywords: Butterflies – Analysis ; Soil Moisture – Analysis ; Climate – Analysis ; Biodiversity – Analysis ; Niches (Ecology) – Analysis ; Global Warming – Analysis
    ISSN: 1313-2989
    E-ISSN: 13132970
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  • 4
    In: Conservation Letters, July 2016, Vol.9(4), pp.281-289
    Description: International trade of species facilitates the establishment of nonnative organisms. Highlighting areas potentially suitable for invasive species (risk areas) allows for effective importation regulations to prevent the spread of and the potential damage caused by such species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict risk areas but they usually disregard intraspecific differentiation and corresponding differences in climatic requirements. We used as an example of a commonly traded species and developed SDMs at the species‐ and subspecies‐level to assess the value of subspecific information for risk area predictions. We show that species‐level models are less efficient than subspecies‐based SDMs and that risk areas differ considerably between subspecies. Therefore, the invasive potential of a species can depend on the subspecies imported and the particular climatic condition of the target area. This paves the way to novel policy‐relevant guidelines to legislate for smart regulations instead of complete import interdictions.
    Keywords: Invasive Risk Assessment ; Invasive Species ; Species Distribution Model ; Species Trade Regulation ; Subspecies ; Traded Species
    ISSN: 1755-263X
    E-ISSN: 1755-263X
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  • 5
    In: Journal of Applied Ecology, April 2016, Vol.53(2), pp.501-510
    Description: The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within‐year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within‐year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.
    Keywords: Abundance Indices ; Butterfly Monitoring Scheme ; Butterfly Count ; Citizen Science ; Flight Period ; Insect Conservation ; Missing Data ; Pollard Walk ; Sampling Effort ; Seasonal Pattern
    ISSN: 0021-8901
    E-ISSN: 1365-2664
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  • 6
    Language: English
    In: Journal of Insect Conservation, 2016, Vol.20(6), p.1033(13)
    Description: To access, purchase, authenticate, or subscribe to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10841-016-9937-z Byline: Christian Kempe (1), Piotr Nowicki (2), Alexander Harpke (1), Oliver Schweiger (1), Josef Settele (1,3) Keywords: Lycaenidae; Myrmica; Sanguisorba; Oviposition; Habitat management Abstract: The occurrence of the Dusky Large Blue Butterfly (Maculinea nausithous) critically depends on the availability of two key resources: the Great Burnet (Sanguisorba officinalis) as primary nectar source for adults, for egg laying and early larval development, and the host ant Myrmica rubra as the food of late instar larvae. Thus, their distributions are key parameters shaping habitat suitability, and we expected that overlapping of both resources would have a strong impact on the size of local M. nausithous populations. Their egg density may be affected (a) by the fraction of host plants per site located within My. rubra activity ranges at the patch scale, or (b) by the availability of host plants with host ants in close range at the local scale, due to the potential ability of butterfly females to detect their host ants. To test the above hypothesis, we recorded spatial distribution patterns of host plants and host ants on 29 study sites in south-western Germany and related them to egg density data of M. nausithous. We found a positive relationship between co-occurence of host plant and host ant and M. nausithous egg density at the patch scale, whereas no correlation was found at the local scale. Thus, focal populations are strongly limited by the abundance of host plants, covered with My. rubra activity, as ant-mediated oviposition could not be proved. Our results underline the importance of resource distribution the understanding of its impacts may provide useful insights into how M. nausithous habitats can be managed in order increase their carrying capacity. Author Affiliation: (1) Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120, Halle, Germany (2) Institute of Environmental Sciences, Jagiellonian University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387, Krakow, Poland (3) iDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103, Leipzig, Germany Article History: Registration Date: 16/11/2016 Received Date: 11/04/2016 Accepted Date: 16/11/2016 Online Date: 23/11/2016
    Keywords: Butterflies ; Environmental Management ; Ants
    ISSN: 1366-638X
    E-ISSN: 15729753
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  • 7
    Language: English
    In: Journal of Insect Conservation, 2018, Vol.22(5), pp.731-743
    Description: Insect conservation needs sound information on species distribution trends. Developing this evidence relies—in practice—on long-term engagement of volunteers who observe and record species over large spatial and temporal scales. Many biodiversity monitoring schemes, including those for insects, are highly dependent on conservation-based citizen science programs with a long-term continuity. As these schemes are built entirely on good will, the nature of social relations and networks is pivotal to success. We assess the working mechanism of a monitoring scheme that is citizen-based as a case study. The German Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (hereafter TMD for “Tagfalter-Monitoring Deutschland”) operates, as many other citizen science monitoring schemes, through an overarching national network of regional subnetworks of volunteers and a central scientific coordination. Using a questionnaire survey paired with a visual social network assessment, we investigate how participants interact within these networks and assess their motivations to engage. We characterise the functionality of this social network based on mechanism of coordination and participation, flows of information and knowledge exchange among recorders, regional and central coordinators, academic scientists and institutions. By analyzing the interactions, we show how the social network facilitates and ensures various communication modes and thereby fosters long-term engagement, stability and growth of the scheme. We identify the central role of project coordination and the importance of social relations within citizen-based monitoring programs for engagement and personal satisfaction. Based on our empirical study, we derive a set of recommendations for establishing and maintaining successful volunteer networks in insect citizen-based monitoring programs.
    Keywords: Social network analysis ; Insect conservation ; Citizen science ; Biodiversity monitoring ; Motivation ; Butterflies
    ISSN: 1366-638X
    E-ISSN: 1572-9753
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  • 8
    In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, January 2012, Vol.21(1), pp.88-99
    Description: We investigate the importance of interacting species for current and potential future species distributions, the influence of their ecological characteristics on projected range shifts when considering or ignoring interacting species, and the consistency of observed relationships across different global change scenarios. Europe. We developed ecological niche models (generalized linear models) for 36 European butterfly species and their larval host plants based on climate and land‐use data. We projected future distributional changes using three integrated global change scenarios for 2080. Observed and projected mismatches in potential butterfly niche space and the niche space of their hosts were first used to assess changing range limitations due to interacting species and then to investigate the importance of different ecological characteristics. Most butterfly species were primarily limited by climate. Species dwelling in warm areas of Europe and tolerant to large variations in moisture conditions were projected to suffer less from global change. However, a gradient from climate to host plant control was apparent, reflecting the range size of the hosts. Future projections indicated increased mismatching of already host‐plant‐limited butterflies and their hosts. Butterflies that utilize plants with restricted ranges were projected to suffer most from global change. The directions of these relationships were consistent across the scenarios but the level of spatial mismatching of butterflies and their host plants increased with the severity of the scenario. Future changes in the co‐occurrence of interacting species will depend on political and socio‐economic development, suggesting that the composition of novel communities due to global change will depend on the way we create our future. A better knowledge of ecological species characteristics can be utilized to project the future fate and potential risk of extinction of interacting species leading to a better understanding of the consequences of changing biotic interactions. This will further enhance our abilities to assess and mitigate potential negative effects on ecosystem functions and services.
    Keywords: Climate Change ; Climate Envelope ; Europe ; Host‐Plant‐Constrained Range ; Species Distribution Model ; Species Interaction
    ISSN: 1466-822X
    E-ISSN: 1466-8238
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  • 9
    Language: English
    In: Ecological Indicators, December 2018, Vol.95, pp.735-740
    Description: Transect counts are one of the most popular approaches to assess and monitor butterfly diversity, especially with the background of biodiversity loss. This method was developed in Europe, but its transferability is seldom tested across the world. To assess transferability, we compared butterfly richness estimates based on transect counts in Spain, Germany and central China, a region with a considerably different biogeographic history and more diverse butterfly fauna compared to Europe. We found that the efficiency of transect counts was much lower in China than in the other two regions. Apart from the fact that traditional transect counts may undersample canopy species which are predominant in central China, higher efficiency in Europe may be primarily attributed to different patterns of butterfly richness likely caused by different biogeographic and anthropogenic land-use history. Our results highlight that great caution is needed when transect count methods are transferred to other regions of the world, especially to particularly species rich areas with a high number of rare species. Low detectability of certain species can substantially mask species richness estimates, and we suggest to carefully adapt sampling effort and perhaps combine transect counts with other methods to ensure more realistic assessment of species richness in such regions.
    Keywords: Transect Counts ; Butterfly Richness ; Butterfly Diversity ; Rarefaction Curves ; Environmental Sciences
    ISSN: 1470-160X
    E-ISSN: 1872-7034
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  • 10
    In: Diversity and Distributions, December 2017, Vol.23(12), pp.1393-1407
    Description: To purchase or authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12634/abstract Byline: Nicolas Titeux,Dirk Maes,Toon Van Daele,Thierry Onkelinx, Risto K. Heikkinen,Helena Romo,Enrique Garcia-Barros,Miguel L. Munguira,Wilfried Thuiller,Chris A. M. van Swaay,Oliver Schweiger,Josef Settele, Alexander Harpke, Martin Wiemers,Lluis Brotons,Miska Luoto Keywords: bioclimatic models; butterflies; climate envelopes; climatic niche; local approaches; species distribution modelling Abstract Aim Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data are available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar. Location Europe. Methods The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness. Results In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands. Main conclusions Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future. Article Note: Funding information European Commission Framework Programmes (FP6 and FP7) via the Integrated Project ALARM, Grant/Award Number: 506675; Integrated Project SCALES, Grant/Award Number: 226852; Collaborative Project STEP, Grant/Award Number: 244090; BiodivERsA Eranet Project CLIMIT; Collaborative Project EU BON, Grant/Award Number: 308454; ERC Starting Grant TEEMBIO, Grant/Award Number: 281422; Structuring the European Research Area Program, Lapland Atmosphere-Biosphere Facility, Grant/Award Number: 025969 CAPTION(S):
    Keywords: Bioclimatic Models ; Butterflies ; Climate Envelopes ; Climatic Niche ; Local Approaches ; Species Distribution Modelling
    ISSN: 1366-9516
    E-ISSN: 1472-4642
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