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  • 1
    In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), October 2011, Vol.174(4), pp.975-989
    Description: Bacterium causes genital chlamydia infection. Yet little is known about the efficiency of transmission of this organism. Ethical constraint against exposing healthy subjects to infected partners precludes the possibility of quantifying the risk of transmission through controlled experiments. This research proposes an alternative strategy that relies on observational data. Specifically, we present a stochastic model that treats longitudinally observed states of infection in a group of young women as a Markov process. The model proposed explicitly accommodates the parameters of transmission, including per‐encounter sexually transmitted infection acquisition risks, with and without condom protection, and the probability of antibiotic treatment failure. The male‐to‐female transmission probability of is then estimated by combining the per‐encounter disease acquisition risk and the organism's prevalence in the male partner population. The model proposed is fitted in a Bayesian computational framework.
    Keywords: Bacterial Infection ; Binary Outcome ; Longitudinal Study ; Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods ; Markov Model ; Observational Data ; Transmission Probability
    ISSN: 0964-1998
    E-ISSN: 1467-985X
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  • 2
    Language: English
    In: Statistics in Medicine, 1992, Vol.11(5), pp.565-577
    Description: Estimates of transmission probabilities for sexually transmitted diseases historically come from studies of uninfected individuals exposed to those with a high disease prevalence (for example, prostitutes). However, changes in sexual behaviour, much of which relates to concerns about AIDS, has made identification of populations suitable for such studies extremely difficult. This paper presents a method for estimating these probabilities that utilizes a deterministic model and routinely collected data available in many clinics. Variance estimates for the estimators are also derived. Data for chlamydial infection and sensitivity analyses for the input parameters and assumptions illustrate the method.
    Keywords: Chlamydia Trachomatis ; Models, Statistical ; Chlamydia Infections -- Transmission ; Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Bacterial -- Transmission;
    ISSN: 0277-6715
    E-ISSN: 1097-0258
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  • 3
    Language: English
    In: Statistics in Medicine, July 1988, Vol.7(7), pp.795-804
    Description: For a series of data points that follow a pattern due to natural ordering, I develop a modified runs test for continuous data to detect such a pattern. The test statistic is the number of runs in the series after having smoothed the data with use of a moving average. The testing procedure is based on permutations of the original data. My simulations indicate that the modified test is generally more powerful than the usual runs test.
    Keywords: Permutation Test ; Test For Randomness ; Simulation
    ISSN: 0277-6715
    E-ISSN: 1097-0258
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