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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    El Salvador : Selected Issues Paper (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845956388
    Format: Online-Ressource (22 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1498332366 , 9781498332361
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 11
    Content: This Selected Issues paper assesses the potential output in El Salvador. Based on various filters and the production function approach, El Salvador's potential growth is estimated at about 2 percent for 1999-2015, and the output gap is now virtually closed. Potential growth after the global financial crisis has fallen as a result of lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth depends on technological progress, as well as the institutional, regulatory, and legal environment in which businesses operate. From a cyclical perspective, the economy is assessed to be operating at potential and labor market conditions also appear to be broadly neutral. Strengthening capital and TFP growth going forward is critical to achieve the authorities' goal of raising potential growth to 3 percent over the medium term. Structural reforms should prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock, enhancing research and development/technological diffusion and competition in product and labor markets, strengthening institutions to secure property rights and reduce red tape, improving infrastructure, facilitating access to financing, and fostering human capital to boost TFP growth. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital and TFP to raise potential growth
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe El Salvador: Selected Issues Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781498332361
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781498332361.002
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Jamaica : Sixth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria - Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica (2014)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84595606X
    Format: Online-Ressource (70 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1498326609 , 9781498326605
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 14 / 359
    Content: Discussions centered on the preparations for the 2015/16 budget, and reforms to strengthen the financial sector and boost growth. The authorities have deepened their efforts in supporting their ambitious fiscal goals by strengthening public financial management and revenue administration, and they reiterated their resolve to continue containing the wage bill. Steps have also been identified to advance the reform of the securities dealers and to increase the resilience of the financial system
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Jamaica: Sixth Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014 ISBN 9781498326605
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781498326605.002
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  • 3
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    Colombia: Selected Issues Paper (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845960849
    Format: Online-Ressource (103 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513546260 , 9781513546261
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 143
    Content: Colombia: Selected Issues Paper
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Colombia: Selected Issues Paper Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513546261
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513546261.002
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  • 4
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    Peru: Selected Issues Paper (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845960687
    Format: Online-Ressource (68 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513560417 , 9781513560410
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 134
    Content: Peru: Selected Issues Paper
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Peru: Selected Issues Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513560410
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513560410.002
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  • 5
    Online Resource
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    United States: Selected Issues (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845961217
    Format: Online-Ressource (16 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 151351430X , 9781513514307
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 169
    Content: United States: Selected Issues
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe United States: Selected Issues Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513514307
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513514307.002
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  • 6
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    Online Resource
    United States: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845961209
    Format: Online-Ressource (62 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513539426 , 9781513539423
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 168
    Content: KEY ISSUES Strategy: The 2015 U.S. Article IV consultation centered on the prospects for higher policy rates and the outlook for, and policy response to, financial stability risks, integrating the findings of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Main findings and policy messages: • The underpinnings for continued growth and job creation remain in place despite momentum being sapped in recent months. • The FOMC should remain data dependent, carefully weighing the risk of weakening progress toward full employment and having to return to zero interest rates versus the risk of creating a temporary rise of inflation above the Fed’s medium-term goal and having to subsequently raise policy rates at a faster pace. • The FOMC should defer its first increase in policy rates until there are greater signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. Based on staff’s macroeconomic forecast, and barring upside surprises to growth and inflation, this would imply a gradual path of policy rate increases starting in the first half of 2016. • Pockets of financial vulnerabilities are emerging, putting a premium on improving the resilience of the financial system. Regulatory reforms remain incomplete and the structure of oversight has scope to be strengthened along a number of dimensions. • A credible and detailed medium-term consolidation plan is needed to address rising health and social security costs and to improve the tax system. Such a plan would provide near-term fiscal space to finance supply-side measures that support future growth. • A range of policy challenges linked to poverty, productivity, and labor force participation remain largely unaddressed
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe United States: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513539423
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513539423.002
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    St. Kitts and Nevis : 2015 Article IV Consultation-First Post-Program Monitoring Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84596268X
    Format: Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513519476 , 9781513519470
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 248
    Content: Context and post-program performance: Macroeconomic conditions continued to improve, with the economy recording a second year of strong growth of about 6 percent, significantly higher than envisaged in the 9th Review. The fiscal balance has also been exceptionally strong, reflecting both robust tax revenues and continued strong growth of CBI budgetary fees, while the debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen more rapidly than projected, to 79 percent of GDP. A new government won elections and assumed power in February 2015, which delayed the PPM mission. Article IV: The last Article IV consultation was concluded on March 19, 2014. Current discussions focused on sustaining fiscal prudence, making progress with debt-land swaps, and boosting reform momentum following a further widening of tax exemptions and heightened uncertainty about future CBI inflows. The mission also urged the development of a plan for managing the CBI inflows, support for the regional bank strategy while continuing to strengthen bank oversight, preserving debt sustainability with a strategy for moving forward with the debt-land swap, implementing growth enhancing reforms focusing on strengthening tourism, developing cost-effective energy solutions, and improving the business environment. Post-Program Monitoring: The 36-month SBA for SDR 52.51 million (590 percent of quota) was concluded on July 27, 2014, with total withdrawals of SDR 47.37 million. Following several advance repayments, Fund credit outstanding fell to 298 percent of quota as of end-June 2015, placing St. Kitts and Nevis under Post-Program Monitoring till May 2016, absent additional early repayments
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe St. Kitts and Nevis: 2015 Article IV Consultation-First Post-Program Monitoring Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513519470
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513519470.002
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Colombia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_84596061X
    Format: Online-Ressource (76 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513530216 , 9781513530215
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 142
    Content: KEY ISSUES Context. Prudent macroeconomic policies have underpinned Colombia’s strong growth during the last few years, which exceeded that of most Latin American peers. Last year, the economy posted real growth of 4.6 percent, and average inflation remained near the center of the target range. Monetary and fiscal policies were mildly supportive of growth. The infrastructure agenda is expected to advance this year. Colombia’s government is engaged in ongoing peace negotiations with the main guerilla group (FARC). Outlook and risks. Starting from a position with slightly positive output gap, Colombia faces a large adverse terms of trade shock. Staff projects growth to slow to 3.4 percent in 2015 and gradually rise toward its potential (around 4¼ percent) over the medium-term supported by the government’s PPP-based infrastructure program and a gradual recovery in oil prices and external demand. Risks are mainly on the downside, including higher interest rates and financial volatility, and a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging economies, and a delayed implementation of the infrastructure program. Macroeconomic policies. Strong headwinds from the severe oil price decline pose significant challenges to the near-term economic outlook. The structural fiscal rule will only partially shield expenditure plans from the oil shock and some fiscal tightening will be required to accommodate lower-than-expected oil revenues. A broadly neutral monetary policy stance will be consistent with achieving the inflation target in the near- term. Medium-term challenges. Colombia’s key challenge will be preserving macroeconomic stability while sustaining strong and inclusive growth through structural reforms. Revenue mobilization is urgently required to protect key social and infrastructure spending while adhering to the medium-term fiscal rule targets amid less favorable external conditions (weaker terms of trade and tighter financing conditions)
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513530215
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513530215.002
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  • 9
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    Peru: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845960679
    Format: Online-Ressource (81 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513539310 , 9781513539317
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 133
    Content: KEY ISSUES Context: Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic fundamentals, strong policy frameworks, and visible gains in poverty reduction. Like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. External shocks were compounded by domestic supply disruptions and a drop in subnational public investment, and growth decelerated sharply. Headline inflation was slightly above the upper band of the central bank’s (BCRP) target range due to supply shocks, but expectations remained well anchored. The external current account deficit declined slightly despite weaker external conditions. Outlook and risks: Growth is expected to recover in 2015 and over the medium term, contingent on production at new mines approaching capacity, priority infrastructure projects advancing, and shocks to terms of trade fading. However, downside risks dominate. Externally, these include a surge in global financial volatility, further dollar appreciation, or lower commodity prices and external demand. Domestic downside risks include weaker investment, uncertainties surrounding 2016 Presidential elections, and persistent social conflicts. A faster unwinding of supply shocks or a more complete pass- through of lower food and fuel global prices constitute upside risks. Near-term policy mix: The policy mix is broadly adequate to support the recovery and maintain macroeconomic stability. The immediate priority is expediting the execution of public investment in line with government plans, while avoiding increases in non-priority current spending. Monetary policy should remain responsive to inflation expectations and external developments. Exchange rate flexibility should be the main line of defense against any additional external pressures. The timely use of macro-prudential tools and ongoing de-dollarization efforts should further solidify financial stability. Medium-term prospects: With the end of the commodity boom, a push to deepen structural reforms will be necessary to sustain potential growth and diversify the economy. Revenue losses would need to be offset to finance structural reforms, investment, and inclusion along a gradual fiscal consolidation path. Streamlining legal requirements and red tape is rightly a government reform priority and the ambitious education reform and inclusion polices should stay their course within the framework of fiscal discipline. Persevering with labor market reform remains im ...
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Peru: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513539317
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513539317.002
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Jamaica: Eighth Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria; Press Release and Staff Report (2015)
    Washington, D.C : International Monetary Fund
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_845960547
    Format: Online-Ressource (71 p)
    Edition: Online-Ausg.
    ISBN: 1513532375 , 9781513532370
    Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 150
    Content: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Investment and growth prospects are gradually improving. Growth is projected to be about 2 percent in 2015/16, as the full-year impact of lower oil import costs and the recovery from last year’s drought materialize, and as improvements in the business climate and confidence feed through to activity. Lower oil prices are expected to reduce inflation faster than previously expected. Implementation of the government’s reform agenda remains strong. All performance criteria were met, with the exception of the end-March performance criterion for the primary balance which was narrowly missed. Structural reforms have advanced broadly in line with the program. Staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the eighth review of the arrangement. Focus of the review. At the half-way juncture of the authorities’ IMF-supported program, discussions centered on how best to capitalize on improving business and consumer confidence to catalyze higher private investment, employment and growth. The authorities have produced a comprehensive growth strategy that tackles the need for macroeconomic stability, strategic investments that promote job creation, and improvements in the business environment. Meanwhile, the program continues to bolster revenue administration and financial stability. Although risks to the program are slowly receding, they remain high. Without stronger economic activity, social support for the demanding reform program may falter. External financial flows could be affected by exogenous shocks, notably higher U.S. interest rates or changes in PetroCaribe flows. Continued weakness in budget revenue could jeopardize the sustainability of the fiscal consolidation over a longer horizon. Vulnerabilities in the financial system are temporarily elevated due to the securities dealers sector transitioning to a new business model and the domestic government bond market remaining frozen
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Jamaica: Eighth Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended fund Facility and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513532370
    Language: English
    DOI: 10.5089/9781513532370.002
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