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  • 1
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.61-76
    Description: This chapter discusses some of the principles behind multi-agent modeling and shows through the examples from land-use change how they can be applied to deal with socio-economic aspects of environmental issues. An underlying theme is the divide between qualitative and quantitative approaches in the social sciences, though the chapter is also aimed at presenting agent-based modeling to those accustomed to mathematical modeling approaches.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 2
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.79-100
    Description: This chapter provides an introduction to interval arithmetic-based techniques for the verification of mathematical models. Illustrative examples are described from the fields of circle packing, chaotic behaviour dynamical systems, and process network synthesis.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 3
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.129-154
    Description: In a modeling exercise, errors in the model structure cannot be avoided because they arise from our limited capability to exactly describe mathematically the complexity of a physical system. The effect of model error on model predictions is not random but systematic, therefore, it does not necessarily have any probabilistic properties that can be easily exploited in the construction of a model performance criterion. The effect of model error varies in both space and time. It is also different for the flow and the solute transport components of a groundwater model and may have a significant impact on parameter estimation, uncertainty analyses and risk assessments. Structural errors may result in a misleading evaluation of prediction uncertainty associated with parameter error because model sensitivity to uncertain parameters may be quite different than that of the correct model. A substantial model error may significantly degrade the usefulness of model calibration and the reliability of model predictions because parameter estimates are forced to compensate for the existing structural errors. Incorrect uncertainty analyses and estimated parameters that have little value in predictive modeling could potentially lead to an engineering design failure or to a selection of a management strategy that involves unnecessary expenditures. A complementary to classical inverse methods model calibration procedure is presented for assessing the uncertainty in parameter estimates associated with model error. This procedure is based on the concept of a per-datum calibration for capturing the spatial and temporal behavior of model error. A set of per-datum parameter estimates obtained by this new method defines a posterior parameter space that may be translated into a probabilistic description of model predictions. The resulted prediction uncertainty represents a reflection on model predictions of available information regarding the dependent variables and measures the level of confidence in model performance.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 4
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.155-181
    Description: Monte Carlo techniques are increasingly used in pesticide exposure modelling to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions arising from uncertainty in input parameters and to estimate the confidence that should be assigned to modelling results. The approach typically involves running a deterministic model repeatedly for a large number of input values sampled from statistical distributions. The present chapter summarizes the results of three different projects demonstrating that subjective choices made in Monte Carlo modelling introduce variability into probabilistic modelling of pesticide leaching, and that the results need to be interpreted with care.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 5
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.205-228
    Description: Scope of the present paper is to provide an assessment of the state of the art of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. After defining what is meant by predictive uncertainty, the role and the importance of estimating predictive uncertainty within the context of flood management and in particular flood emergency management, is here discussed. Furthermore, the role of model and parameter uncertainty is presented together with alternative approaches aimed at taking them into account in the estimation of predictive uncertainty. In terms of operational tools, the paper also describes three of the recently developed Hydrological Uncertainty Processors. Finally, given the increased interest in meteorological ensemble precipitation forecasts, the paper discusses possible approaches aimed at incorporating input forecasting uncertainty in predictive uncertainty.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 6
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.351-382
    Description: The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change presented by Lord Nicholas Stern and his team has been touted as the most rigorous analysis at present regarding the risks associated with global climate change. The Stern Review presents the costs and benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and comes to the stark conclusion that global inaction could result in even greater costs than the investment in immediate preventative action for long-term emission stabilization. However, even though the Stern Review addresses important aspects needed to establish an effective global policy on climate change, it is necessary to review the uncertainties associated with the Stern Review's conclusions and overall analysis. The uncertainties in the economics of climate change arise from three distinct realms: (i) the scientific uncertainties, (ii) the uncertainties in the economic framework, and (iii) the uncertainties in the implications for policy. This review addresses these individual aspects in brief in an attempt to give a general understanding of the critiques and debates regarding the Stern Review.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 7
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.339-350
    Description: Media representational practices are vitally important to conceptions of challenges and possibilities for action to address the issue of anthropogenic climate change. They shape processes between science, policy and the public and thereby influence issues of governance and practices in our everyday lives and livelihoods in the twenty-first century. Many complex factors contribute to media representation practices: external (such as political economic challenges associated with corporate media consolidation) as well as internal influences (such as contributions from the deployment of journalistic norms). In this chapter, I touch on salient and swirling factors that contribute to how issues, events and information have often become climate ‘news’n about anthropogenic climate change. To the extent that these pressures have led to problematic representational practices, media coverage of climate change has contributed to misperceptions, misleading debates, and divergent understandings. Such practices are therefore detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for appropriate responses to various environmental challenges.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 8
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.253-264
    Description: As the severity of the global CO2 problem gradually is becoming clear to everybody, decisions will have to be made concerning permitting of carbon storage projects. Fossil fuel based power plants can produce energy at competitive prices with other energy sources even if equipped with capture facilities. Thus, the fossil fuel industry is ready to implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) once a CO2 tax regime or its equivalent is introduced. Questions associated with accounting for leaky storage reservoirs over millennial time scales in a carbon credit regime and estimating impacts of CO2 on climate and ocean ecosystems will then have to be addressed in order to estimate the benefits and possible damage from any given storage project. Available environmental models for such questions have only limited validation data but are foreseen to play a key role, and acquisition of required site specific data may be costly. Experience from the past 15 years of research on CO2 storage options and the associated science — policy interface suggests that uncertain models tend to be trusted too much by policy makers. In some cases, good intentions for environmental protection lead to a compartmentalized approach that is unsuitable for global problems where tradeoffs may be inevitable. In conclusion, the likelihood of poor environmental management decisions on carbon storage is large and the actual need for alternative solutions to the CO2 problem is larger than proponents of CCS may like to think.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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  • 9
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.231-251
    Description: As the types of problems that policy-makers attempt to solve grow more complex, they increasingly are turning to scientists for specific advice. A critical challenge in communicating the results of scientific research arises when those results contain a great deal of uncertainty. Different academic disciplines offer diverging advice on how scientists should proceed, based in large part on differences in how the various disciplines view the process of decision-making process itself. In this chapter, the author links the strategies for communicating uncertainty to the decision-making models of economics, psychology, and sociology, respectively. He suggests that the relative strength of each strategy depends on the context within which the decision-maker is operating. To resolve this ambiguity about how best to communicate uncertainty, he offers first-best and second-best approaches. The first-best approach is rooted in a process of dialogue, with attention to two-way communication and the relationship between scientists and policy-makers. The second-best approach is rooted in the goal not of giving all decision-makers all of the information they need, but rather in providing them with just enough information to judge whether they need more. To assist in that latter task, the author suggests particular guidelines for the aspects of uncertainty that scientists need to communicate.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
    Library Location Call Number Volume/Issue/Year Availability
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  • 10
    Book chapter
    Book chapter
    Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
    Language: English
    In: NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making, pp.27-60
    Description: Flow and transport processes in unsaturated soil are analyzed through a simulation environment based on cellular automata (CA). The modeling proposed in this chapter represents an extension of the original computational paradigm of cellular automata, because it uses a macroscopic CA approach where local laws with a clear physical meaning govern interactions among automata. This CA structure, aimed at simulating a large-scale system, is based on functionalities capable of increasing its computational capacity, both in terms of working environment and in terms of the optimal number of processors available for parallel computing. Specifically, the performance of a three-dimensional unsaturated flow model has been verified comparing the results with reference multidimensional solutions taken from benchmarks in literature, showing a good agreement even in the cases where non-linearity is very marked. Furthermore, some analyses have been carried out considering quantization techniques aimed at transforming the CA model into an asynchronous structure. The use of these techniques in a three-dimensional benchmark allowed a considerable reduction in the number of local interactions among adjacent automata without changing the efficiency of the model, especially when simulations are characterized by scarce mass exchanges.
    Keywords: Environment ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice ; Environmental Management ; Climate Change ; Soil Science & Conservation ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences
    ISBN: 9789048126354
    ISBN: 9048126355
    Source: SpringerLink Books
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