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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Bilateral international investments : the big sur? (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Office of the Chief Economist & Development Economics, Development Research Group
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1749528711
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9501
    Content: Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance. The paper assembles comprehensive bilateral data on cross-border bank loans and deposits, portfolio investment in debt and equity, foreign direct investment, and international reserves. The main finding is that global financial integration with and especially within the South (countries outside the G7 and Western Europe) has grown faster than within the North. By 2018, the South accounted for 24 to 40 percent of international loans and deposits, portfolio investment, and foreign direct investment, an increase of roughly 10 percentage points since 2001. The growing importance of the South is reflected in the intensive and extensive margins, with fast growth in the number of bilateral links. Although China weighs heavily in these trends, international investment in the rest of the South has increased to a similar extent
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Print Version: Broner, Fernando Bilateral International Investments: The Big Sur? Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2021
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9501
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Do coronavirus containment measures work? : worldwide evidence (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, International Finance Corporation
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1749512947
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9490
    Content: Using a daily data base covering 158 countries during January to August 2020, this paper assesses the effectiveness of coronavirus containment measures in reducing contagion and death rates. To estimate the effectiveness of different containment measures, the paper uses a methodological approach that takes into consideration the persistence in the dynamics between coronavirus containment measures and contagion/death rates, countries' idiosyncratic characteristics, and the endogeneity of the containment measures. To obtain efficient estimates of the effect of coronavirus containment measures on contagion and death rates, a dynamic panel-data technique is used, complemented by efficient instruments for the decision of adopting coronavirus containment measures. The results show that countries with better health systems, higher temperatures, and more democratic regimes tended to delay the adoption of coronavirus containment measures. The results also detect demonstration effects as the early adoption of coronavirus containment measures in Western Europe led other countries to accelerate their adoption. Using predictions from the estimated model, it is possible to benchmark the timing of adoption of coronavirus containment measures and assess whether their adoption was timely or not and if they were lifted prematurely or not. The findings of this exercise show that countries with timely adopted coronavirus containment measures restricted activities, meanwhile they lagged in the adoption of measures restricting individual liberties. The evidence indicates that most countries resisted the urge to lift restrictions in advance, once they have been in place: over 60 percent of the countries have reacted as predicted by our econometric models, maintaining coronavirus containment measures in place until contagion rates receded. Nevertheless, around one-quarter of the countries lifted their restrictions one month or more ahead of what the worldwide evidence would have suggested, in particular by removing lockdowns and re-opening workplaces. Finally, the results show that coronavirus containment measures have been effective in reducing contagion and death rates, but there are differences in the effectiveness among them, and restrictions on activities have been more effective than restrictions on personal liberties
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Blanco, Fernando Do Coronavirus Containment Measures Work? Worldwide Evidence Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9490
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Predicting food crises (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Fragility, Conflict and Violence Global Theme & Development Economics Vice Presidency
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1743503679
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9412
    Content: Globally, more than 130 million people are estimated to be in food crisis. These humanitarian disasters are associated with severe impacts on livelihoods that can reverse years of development gains. The existing outlooks of crisis-affected populations rely on expert assessment of evidence and are limited in their temporal frequency and ability to look beyond several months. This paper presents a statistical foresting approach to predict the outbreak of food crises with sufficient lead time for preventive action. Different use cases are explored related to possible alternative targeting policies and the levels at which finance is typically unlocked. The results indicate that, particularly at longer forecasting horizons, the statistical predictions compare favorably to expert-based outlooks. The paper concludes that statistical models demonstrate good ability to detect future outbreaks of food crises and that using statistical forecasting approaches may help increase lead time for action
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Predicting Food Crises Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9412
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
    Author information: Kraay, Aart
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Stochastic modeling of food insecurity (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Fragility, Conflict and Violence Global Theme
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_174350389X
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9413
    Content: Recent advances in food insecurity classification have made analytical approaches to predict and inform response to food crises possible. This paper develops a predictive, statistical framework to identify drivers of food insecurity risk with simulation capabilities for scenario analyses, risk assessment and forecasting purposes. It utilizes a panel vector-autoregression to model food insecurity distributions of 15 Sub-Saharan African countries between October 2009 and February 2019. Statistical variable selection methods are employed to identify the most important agronomic, weather, conflict and economic variables. The paper finds that food insecurity dynamics are asymmetric and past-dependent, with low insecurity states more likely to transition to high insecurity states than vice versa. Conflict variables are more relevant for dynamics in highly critical stages, while agronomic and weather variables are more important for less critical states. Food prices are predictive for all cases. A Bayesian extension is introduced to incorporate expert opinions through the use of priors, which lead to significant improvements in model performance
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Wang, Dieter Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9413
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Micro-level analysis of Mexican retail markets and their response to changes in market structure and competition policies (2018)
    Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group, Jobs Cross Cutting Solution Area
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1014586941
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8294
    Content: This paper develops the following price indicators to measure the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets: (a) price dispersion, (b) price volatility, and (c) price transmission (speed, completeness, and symmetry). The paper uses these indicators to study trends and conditions of the outlet level in retail prices for common commodities sold throughout Mexico. The analysis examines price patterns for each indicator across commodities, regions, and time. The descriptive results indicate that although there is (expected) heterogeneity in the behavior of these indicators across commodities, location variables explain the most variation in the indicators. There are clear and persistent regional- and commodity-specific effects. Thus, the study concludes that Mexico is not one, well-integrated national market. The study tested whether changes in these indicators (increased efficiency) have the expected correlation with measures affecting the functioning of markets. It considered changes in competition and entry of large retail stores in the local retail market. These changes affect market efficiency in the way theory would predict. The results suggest that these indicators are good measures of the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets. The findings also suggest that efforts to monitor markets using these indicators may be useful. For example, for policy makers who are concerned about the distributional effects of liberalizing trade, the indicators may predict where price impacts will be felt the most and by whom. In addition, the indicators provide preliminary information about relative competition levels, which may be helpful in saving the time and effort of the competition authorities and possibly making them more effective
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Sanchez-Bayardo, Luis Fernando Micro-Level Analysis of Mexican Retail Markets and Their Response to Changes in Market Structure and Competition Policies Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2018
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8294
    URL: Volltext  (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Pollution and expenditures in a penalized vector spatial autoregressive time series model with data-driven networks (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1666260363
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8757
    Content: This paper introduces a Spatial Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (SVARMA) model in which multiple cross-sectional time series are modeled as multivariate, possibly fat-tailed, spatial autoregressive ARMA processes. The estimation requires specifying the cross-sectional spillover channels through spatial weights matrices. the paper explores a kernel method to estimate the network topology based on similarities in the data. It discusses the model and estimation, focusing on a penalized Maximum Likelihood criterion. The empirical performance of the estimator is explored in a simulation study. The model is used to study a spatial time series of pollution and household expenditure data in Indonesia. The analysis finds that the new model improves in terms of implied density, and better neutralizes residual correlations than the VARMA, using fewer parameters. The results suggest that growth in household expenditures precedes pollution reduction, particularly after the expenditures of poorer households increase; that increasing pollution is followed by reduced growth in expenditures, particularly reducing the growth of poorer households; and that there are significant spillovers from bottom-up growth in expenditures. The paper does not find evidence for top-down growth spillovers. Feedback between the identified mechanisms may contribute to pollution-poverty traps and the results imply that pollution damages are economically significant
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Pollution and Expenditures in a Penalized Vector Spatial Autoregressive Time Series Model with Data-Driven Networks Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2019
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8757
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Environment and development : penalized non-parametric inference of global trends in deforestation, pollution and carbon (2019)
    Washington, DC, USA : World Bank Group, Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1666260142
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 8756
    Content: This paper revisits the issue of environment and development raised in the 1992 World Development Report, with new analysis tools and data. The paper discusses inference and interpretation in a machine learning framework. The results suggest that production gradually favors conserving the earth's resources as gross domestic product increases, but increased efficiency alone is not sufficient to offset the effects of growth in scale. Instead, structural change in the economy shapes environmental outcomes across GDP. The analysis finds that average development is associated with an inverted 'U'-shape in deforestation, pollution, and carbon intensities. Per capita emissions follow a 'J'-curve. Specifically, poverty reduction occurs alongside degrading local environments and higher income growth poses a global burden through carbon. Local economic structure further determines the shape, amplitude, and location of tipping points of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The models are used to extrapolate environmental output to 2030. The daunting implications of continued development are a reminder that immediate and sustained global efforts are required to mitigate forest loss, improve air quality, and shift the global economy to a 2 Degree pathway
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes Environment and Development: Penalized Non-Parametric Inference of Global Trends in Deforestation, Pollution and Carbon Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2019
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8756
    URL: Volltext  (lizenzpflichtig)
    URL: Deutschlandweit zugänglich
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    COVID-19 and EMDE corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities : a simple stress-test approach (2020)
    [Washington, DC, USA] : World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice
    Details
    UID:
    gbv_1735963526
    Format: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    Series Statement: Policy research working paper 9324
    Content: This paper conducts a simple stress test to gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates to withstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets two basic accounting ratios that capture a firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities and interest expenses. The full sample consists of almost 17,000 firms in 73 emerging markets and developing economies and represents USD 22.1 trillion in total assets and USD 6.05 trillion in total debt. The findings show that, prior to the pandemic, almost 60 percent of the debt was associated with firms that already exhibited vulnerabilities according to at least one ratio. A 30-percent shock to earnings and receivables raises this to 88 percent, of which 29 percentage points is vulnerable in terms of both indicators, a 230-percent increase compared with before to the pandemic. Firms in East Asia and Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia appear to be the most exposed. Some countries with vulnerable corporate sectors also display weaknesses in insolvency frameworks, which may impede restructurings and write-downs and contribute to a surge in socially inefficient liquidations of cash-strapped but otherwise viable firms
    Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Feyen, Erik COVID-19 and EMDE Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities: A Simple Stress-Test Approach Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 2020
    Language: English
    Keywords: Graue Literatur
    DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-9324
    URL: lizenzpflichtig
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