ISSN:
0363-0129
Content:
In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: incubation time, age-dependent symptom severity, and testing and hospitalization delays; the model's parameters are chosen based on medical evidence, and, for concreteness, adapted to the German situation. Then, optimal mass-testing and age-dependent social distancing policies are determined by solving optimal control problems both in open loop and within a model predictive control framework. We aim to minimize testing and/or social distancing until herd immunity sets in under a constraint on the number of available intensive care units. We find that an early and short lockdown is inevitable but can be slowly relaxed over the following months.
In:
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, SIAM journal on control and optimization, Philadelphia, Pa. : Soc., 1966, 60(2022), 2, Seite S145-S169, 0363-0129
In:
volume:60
In:
year:2022
In:
number:2
In:
pages:S145-S169
Language:
English
Author information:
Hotz, Thomas 1978-
Author information:
Worthmann, Karl
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