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Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making

  • Conference proceedings
  • © 2009

Overview

Editors:
  1. Philippe C. Baveye

    1. SIMBIOS Centre, Abertay University, Dundee, U.K.

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  2. Magdeline Laba

    1. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, U.S.A.

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  3. Jaroslav Mysiak

    1. Foundation Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy

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  • Systematic coverage of a crucial aspect of environmental modelling
  • Effectively provides a bridge between scientists and policy makers
  • Theoretical background illustrated by topical case studies

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Table of contents (17 papers)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xix
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  2. Model Conceptualization

    1. Spatially explicit versus lumped models in catchment hydrology – experiences from two case studies

      • Helge Bormann, Lutz Breuer, Simone Giertz, Johan A. Huisman, Neil R. Viney
      Pages 3-26

    2. Cellular automata modeling of environmental systems

      • Salvatore Straface, Giuseppe Mendicino
      Pages 27-60

    3. Agent-based modeling of socio-economic processes related to the environment: Example of land-use change

      • J. Gary Polhill
      Pages 61-76

  3. Verification Of Models

    1. Interval analysis and verification of mathematical models

      • Tibor Csendes
      Pages 79-100

    2. Stochastic arithmetic and verification of mathematical models

      • Jean-Marie Chesneaux, Fabienne Jézéquel, Jean-Luc Lamotte
      Pages 101-125

  4. Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis

    1. Model calibration/parameter estimation techniques and conceptual model error

      • Petros Gaganis
      Pages 129-154

    2. User subjectivity in Monte Carlo modelling of pesticide exposure

      • Marco Trevisan
      Pages 155-181

    3. Recommended practices in global sensitivity analysis

      • Andrea Saltelli, Daniele Vidoni, Massimiliano Mascherini
      Pages 183-202

  5. Evaluation Of Models

    1. Predictive uncertainty assessment in real time flood forecasting

      • Ezio Todini
      Pages 205-228

  6. Communicating Modelling Results And Uncertainties

    1. Communicating uncertainty to policy makers

      • Anthony Patt
      Pages 231-251

    2. Communicating scientific uncertainty for decision making about CO2 storage

      • Peter M. Haugan
      Pages 253-264

  7. Decision Making On The Basis Of Model Prediction

    1. Approaches to handling uncertainty when setting environmental exposure standards

      • Esben Budtz-Jørgensen, Niels Keiding, Philippe Grandjean
      Pages 267-280

  9. Global Climate Change

    1. Media representational practices in the Anthropocene Era

      • Maxwell T. Boykoff
      Pages 339-350

    2. The stern review and the uncertainties in the economics of climate change

      • Vanessa Peña
      Pages 351-382

  10. Natural Attenuation of Contaminants and Risk Assessment

    1. Phytotechnologies: how plants and bacteria work together

      • Stefan Shilev, Iordanka Kuzmanova, Enrique Sancho
      Pages 385-397

  11. Back Matter

    Pages 399-401
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Keywords

About this book

Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.

Editors and Affiliations

  • SIMBIOS Centre, Abertay University, Dundee, U.K.

    Philippe C. Baveye

  • School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, U.S.A.

    Magdeline Laba

  • Foundation Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy

    Jaroslav Mysiak

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