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How global conditions impact regional agricultural production and nitrogen surpluses in the German Elbe River Basin

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Abstract

Agricultural land use has shifted towards more intensified production because the prices of agricultural products have increased during the past years. Just a few years ago, voluntary area set-aside was a lucrative alternative in some regions. But nowadays, land is re-cultivated again, inter alia with biomass crops. Consequently, this affects the soil and nutrient balances in agriculture. The global changes on the world markets influence agricultural production and thus the water cycle at the regional scale. In this paper, the regional developments and policy alternatives are discussed for the Elbe River Basin. The paper concludes that on average, no substantial effects of nitrogen surpluses are expected for the Elbe River Basin due to a continuing decline in animal herds. However, at the county level, nitrogen surpluses are likely to exceed the maximum threshold of 60 kg nitrogen per hectare (stipulated in the German Fertiliser Regulation) due to regional concentrations of animal production. A halving of the threshold to 30 kg per hectare shows that the marginal costs of nitrogen surplus reduction regionally exceeded 10 Euros per kilogram nitrogen.

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Notes

  1. GLOWA-Elbe (Global Change Impacts on the Water Cycle in the Elbe River Basin—Risks and Options. http://www.glowa-elbe.de).

  2. SEAMLESS-IP (System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society; http://www.seamless-ip.org/); SENSOR-IP (Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for Environmental, Social and Economic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions; http://www.sensor-ip.org/); EURURALIS (Europe’s future agriculture and rural areas; http://www.eururalis.eu).

  3. GLOWA Danube project: Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin (http://www.glowa-danube.de).

  4. RIVERTWIN: a Regional Model for Integrated Water Management in Twinned River Basins (http://www.rivertwin-neckar.de).

  5. Land use concepts for peripheral regions. Collaborative Research Centre 299 of the German Research Association of the Justus Liebig University Giessen. (http://www.sfb299.de).

  6. Estimates from representatives of the “German Maize Committee” in a discussion round on September 14 2007.

  7. Experts, e.g., from Institute for Spatial Analysis and Planning in Areas of Intensive Agriculture, Vechta, Germany; Bavarian State Research Center for Agriculture, Bavaria, Germany, Institute of Agricultural Technology and Biosystems Engineering (vTI), Dr. P. Weiland.

  8. In the USA, biofuel production is supported with investment promotion programs and tax benefits of 0.135 US$ per Litre Ethanol and 0.264 US$ per Litre biofuel (USDA 2007). This is the same as large scale tax exemption in most federal states. In the EU, according to Regulation 2003/30/EG until 2010 a biofuel percentage of 5.75% is targeted (European Parliament and Council 2003).

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the research project “Impacts of Global Change on the Water Cycle in the Elbe Region—Risks and Options (GLOWA-Elbe)” funded by the Federal Ministry of Research and Education under the GLOWA programme (FKZ: 01 LW 0603A2).

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  1. Institute of Rural Studies, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas Forestry and Fisheries, Bundesallee 50, 38116, Braunschweig, Germany

    Horst Gömann, Peter Kreins & Claudia Heidecke

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  1. Horst Gömann
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Correspondence to Horst Gömann.

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Gömann, H., Kreins, P. & Heidecke, C. How global conditions impact regional agricultural production and nitrogen surpluses in the German Elbe River Basin. Reg Environ Change 11, 663–678 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0198-1

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