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Effect of Global Warming on Intensity and Frequency Curves of Precipitation, Case Study of Northwestern Iran

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Abstract

Predicting natural phenomena like flood and drought and consequently presenting an appropriate solution for fighting such natural hazards in northwestern Iran is considered in this study through clustering the precipitation regime. To compare the reference period (past) with the simulated data, the statistics of daily precipitation in six stations of Ardebil, Ghazvin, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, and Tabriz, have been provided for a 30-year period (1961–1990) and compared with the simulated data of 2021–2050. The simulated data was generated by general atmosphere circulation model HADCM3, A1scenario and was downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The method for comparing precipitations was done based on clustering in the form of 5 clusters for all the stations and study periods. One of the results of this research is the greater concentration of precipitation for the cold periods of the year (winter and fall) and the increase of annual precipitation by the amount of 20.62 mm for future period. Furthermore, the normality of two coordinates of precipitation and cluster frequency percentage was evaluated. The outputs of this section demonstrate that the precipitations of cluster 3 which have the features of light rain with average intensity, fall on this normal line for most of the stations and study periods. On the other hand, precipitations of cluster 1 indicating very heavy and intense precipitations, have the most distance to the normal line in most cases. Therefore, the precipitations of the third cluster need optimal exploitation management while those of the first cluster need required risk and crisis management.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful for the help of Dr. M.S. Najafi from the Department of Geography, Tabriz University, in obtaining the data and kindly appreciate this favor. Furthermore, we express special thanks to Professor Yue-Ping Xu, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University for his invaluable pieces of advice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Faculty of human Science, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran

    Gholamreza Roshan & AbdolAzim Ghanghermeh

  2. Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, zip code: 1417853111, , #23, Azin Avenue, Ghods Street, Enghelab Square, Tehran, Iran

    Touraj Nasrabadi

  3. Civil-Environmental Engineering, Aras International Campus, University of Tehran, Jolfa, Iran

    Jafar Bahari Meimandi

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  1. Gholamreza Roshan
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  2. AbdolAzim Ghanghermeh
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  3. Touraj Nasrabadi
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  4. Jafar Bahari Meimandi
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Correspondence to Touraj Nasrabadi.

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Roshan, G., Ghanghermeh, A., Nasrabadi, T. et al. Effect of Global Warming on Intensity and Frequency Curves of Precipitation, Case Study of Northwestern Iran. Water Resour Manage 27, 1563–1579 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0258-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0258-7

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