Human activities negatively impact distribution of ungulates in the Mongolian Gobi
Introduction
The Mongolia's Southern Gobi Desert is among the world's largest and most intact arid rangelands, and thus is of global importance (Batsaikhan et al., 2014). This region supports a unique assemblage of native wildlife, including the largest populations of Asiatic wild ass (or khulan, Equus hemionus) and goitered (or black-tailed Gazella subgutturosa) gazelle in the world (Buuveibaatar et al., 2016). For both species, poaching is primary driver of population declines throughout their range (Mallon and Zhigang, 2009, Stubbe et al., 2012), although habitat loss and fragmentation across the species' range may also be important (Clark et al., 2006, Ito et al., 2013a, Batsaikhan et al., 2014). The khulan is categorized as Near Threatened (Kaczensky et al., 2015), while goitered gazelles are listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List (Mallon, 2008).
The desert ecosystem is characterized by seasonal extremes of heat and cold, unpredictable precipitation, and accompanying low and dramatically variable pasture productivity (von Wehrden et al., 2012). The overall sparse environment with tremendous interannual variability in high-quality pasture resulted in the development of a nomadic ungulate system. Well-adapted ungulate species in the region survive because of their ability to move long-distances to find suitable habitat (Olson et al., 2010, Kaczensky et al., 2011a). Conservation of this highly dynamic system is particularly challenging because of the large areas required to provide enough pasture for viable populations (Ito et al., 2013b).
The Southern Gobi also is rich in mineral deposits (World Bank, 2006), and a number of mining-related development and infrastructure projects are underway or planned (Walton, 2010, Batsaikhan et al., 2014). As extractive industry developments expand across the region, they disrupt migratory movements, fragment habitat, and cause direct or indirect habitat loss (Ito et al., 2008, Kaczensky et al., 2011a). However, little is known about the impacts of mining development and operations on khulan and goitered gazelles and their habitats. Consequently, determining key variables influencing distribution of and the amount of potential habitat available to khulan and goitered gazelle in the vast landscape of the Southern Gobi is crucial to policy makers, managers, and industry for developing mitigation measures and planning landscape-level conservation strategies (Kaczensky et al., 2008, Mallon and Zhigang, 2009).
In this manuscript, we present results of statistical analyses using observations of khulan and goitered gazelle group locations, remotely sensed variables, and disturbance indices to produce spatially explicit habitat models for these ungulates. We were particularly interested in determining whether environmental or human associated factors are the main drivers in influencing the distribution and habitat of both species. These results are important for understanding the current drivers of distribution, determining critical habitat for these species, and offering guidance to mitigate impacts from mine and associated infrastructure developments in the region.
Section snippets
Study area
We conducted our study across a 98,216-km2 area in Mongolia's Southern Gobi (Fig. 1), where elevation ranges from 683 m to 1884 m. Average annual precipitation is 150 mm in the southeast part of the study area, but considerably less (≤ 100 mm) toward the north and west. The average annual temperature is around 5 °C, but daily means may reach 40 °C in summer and drop to − 35 °C in winter. Vegetation is sparse and in many areas is dominated by drought-adapted central Asian desert species, particularly
Habitat models
On basis of minimum AIC, the top-ranked model determining spatial distribution of khulan included the covariates: NDVI, elevation, presence of households, and human disturbance (Table 1). NDVI and elevation emerged as significant terms in the model with their second-order polynomials, indicating the preference for areas associated with intermediate values of these variables by khulan (Fig. S4a). The model also suggested probability of khulan presence decreased with increasing human disturbance
Discussion
Mining development is projected to continue to increase in the Southern Gobi and elsewhere in Mongolia (Walton, 2010) and thus is set to become a major driver of land-use change. As such, there is a pressing need for assessments of the nature of impacts on wildlife and the spatial extent to which these impacts extend. Spatial distribution of khulan and goitered gazelles was influenced predominantly by human disturbance, the presence of households, and to a lesser degree by elevation preferring
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank B. Chimeddorj, G. Naranbaatar, T. Munkhzul, S. Amarsaikhan, B. Dashnyam, T. Purevsuren and many other field survey team members. The logistical and administrative support of A. Otgonsuren, T. Dashzeveg, S. Enkhtuvshin from Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), B. Nyamdorj from Sustainability East Asia (SEA), and D.A. Hosack from Oyu Tolgoi (OT) is greatly appreciated. T. Mueller was funded by the Robert Bosch Foundation. Capture of khulan was made possible by C. Walzer. We
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