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Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes

Nature volume 512, pages 290–294 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events1. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (bp) in the ice core record2, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike3. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model16, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere–ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence1,3,17. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere–ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

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Figure 1: Transient simulations with gradually increasing NHIS height (ISTran45) and CO2 level (TrGHG04).
Figure 2: Ocean circulation and internal SAT variability under cold and warm climate states in experiment ISTran45.
Figure 3: AMOC hysteresis with respect to changes in NHIS height and its relationship to recorded abrupt climate variability.
Figure 4: Annual mean anomaly maps between strong and weak AMOC modes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the colleagues in the Paleoclimate Dynamics group at the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven for useful discussions, and I. Hall for comments on a previous draft of the manuscript. G.K. acknowledges helpful discussion with S. Barker. We thank the AWI colleagues who provide technical support on graphics and keep the AWI supercomputer running. This study is promoted by Helmholtz funding through the Polar Regions and Coasts in the Changing Earth System (PACES) programme of the AWI. Funding by ‘Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM’ (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German research centres (HGF), is gratefully acknowledged (G.K.).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestrasse 24, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany,

    Xu Zhang, Gerrit Lohmann, Gregor Knorr & Conor Purcell

  2. MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Bremen, Germany,

    Gerrit Lohmann

  3. School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AT, UK,

    Gregor Knorr & Conor Purcell

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  1. Xu Zhang
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Contributions

X.Z., G.L. and G.K. developed the research and designed the experiments. X.Z. conducted the model simulations and analysed the data. X.Z., G.L. and G.K. interpreted the results. X.Z. led the write-up of the manuscript with significant contribution by C.P. and the other authors. All authors discussed the results and contributed to the preparation of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xu Zhang.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 Topography information used in this study.

a, NHIS topography anomaly between LGM (Hsf = 1) and PD/NHIS_0.0 (Hsf = 0). b–d, topography in NHIS_0.0 (b), NHIS_0.4 (c) and LGMctl (d). The ice-sheet imposed in LGMctl is derived from the PIMP3 protocol (https://pmip3.lsce.ipsl.fr/). The NHIS height anomaly between LGM (Hsf = 1) and PD (Hsf = 0) contributes to an equivalent change in sea level of ∼92 m.

Extended Data Figure 2 Spatial patterns of AMOC in different NHIS scenarios.

a–i, Climatology AMOC patterns in experiments LGMctl (a), NHIS_0.6 (b), NHIS_0.5 (c), NHIS_0.4 (d), NHIS_0.2 (e), NHIS_0.0 (f), FIS_0.4 (g), LrtdIS_0.4 (h) and L04_hsol (i), as also described in Extended Data Table 1. j, Climatology AMOC pattern in the pre-industrial control run in COSMOS16.

Extended Data Figure 3 Characteristics of internal SAT variability under cold and warm climates in ISTran45.

a, c, e, Time series of SAT index in northern North Atlantic (average in 56°–65° N, 5°–30° W) (a) and composite maps of SIC and SAT anomalies in warming (c) and cooling (e) cases in the cold climate of ISTran45 (model year −200 to 0). b, d, f, As a, c and e respectively for the warm climate (the model year 110–250). Dashed lines in a and b represent ±1σ of the SAT indices. The warming and cooling cases are respectively defined as above and below 1 s.d.

Extended Data Figure 4 Characteristics of SIC under cold and warm climates in ISTran45.

a, c, Climatology SIC annual mean (a) and SIC variability (c) in the cold climate of ISTran45. b, d, As a and c respectively for the warm climate. The cold and warm climates are defined as the model year −200 to 0 and 110–250 of ISTran45 respectively, as also shown in Extended Data Fig. 3a, b.

Extended Data Figure 5 Atmosphere and ocean responses to changes in NHIS height.

a, Zonal wind stress along 100°–35° W. b, Wind stress curl over the North Atlantic Ocean. c, Anomalies in SIC (shaded) and sea ice transport (SI transport, vector). d, Absolute (NHIS_0.4s, shaded) and anomalous (contour) values of horizontal barotropic stream function. e, Mixed-layer depth anomaly (shaded) and absolute values for 15% (dashed) and 90% (solid) SIC in LGMctl (red line) and NHIS_0.4s (blue line). It can be seen that the core of northern westerlies shifts northwards gradually as the NHIS height increases, meanwhile strengthening wind stress curl over the North Atlantic basin. This indicates a linear response of wind circulation to the NHIS variations. Under identical NHIS configurations (NHIS_0.4w and NHIS_0.4s), the wind stress curl can also be enhanced as a consequence of wind system changes occurring in response to the atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice feedback in the northern North Atlantic.

Extended Data Figure 6 Simulated annual mean precipitation anomaly between the strong and weak AMOC modes with superimposed precipitation records.

The strong (weak) mode is defined as the ensemble mean of NHIS_0.45, NHIS_0.4s, NHIS_0.35s and NHIS_0.3s (NHIS_0.4, NHIS_0.35w, NHIS_0.3w and NHIS_0.25) AMOC modes. Green and red dots indicate humid and arid conditions, respectively, during DO warmings, as also shown in Extended Data Table 3.

Extended Data Figure 7 AMOC indices in the hosing experiments.

a, c, 0.02 Sv saltwater hosing experiments in the North Atlantic at fixed intermediate ice-sheet height of 0.25 (a) and 0.4 Hsf (c). b, d, 0.02 Sv freshwater hosing experiments at Hsf = 0.3 (b) and Hsf = 0.45 (d). The vertical dashed lines indicate the ending time of the freshwater/saltwater perturbation. pFWP and nFWP indicate 0.02 Sv freshwater and saltwater, respectively, imposed in the North Atlantic region of 50–65° N and 5°–30° W. It is noted that NHIS_0.4 nfwp and NHIS_0.3s pfwp are within the range of the bistable regime with respect to NHIS height, whereas the others lie outside.

Extended Data Table 1 Model simulations in this study
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Extended Data Table 2 Temperature proxy data used for model–data comparison
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Extended Data Table 3 Information on 22 precipitation proxy records covering the period when the ice-sheet height is at varying intermediate levels (that is, MIS3)
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Zhang, X., Lohmann, G., Knorr, G. et al. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes. Nature 512, 290–294 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13592

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