Format:
1 Online-Ressource (469 Seiten)
ISBN:
9783030762957
Note:
Intro -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- About the Author -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Why Finance Matters for Economics: The Story of Financing the Railroad -- The Relationship Between Credit Growth and Economic Growth -- Growth and Debt Finance -- The Global Case for Credit and Growth -- Sector Links-The Links of Finance and the Economy at the Sector Level -- The Specific Issue of Private Credit -- Market Price Framework -- Price Signals in the Linkages Between Markets -- Shifting Benchmarks: What Is an Investor to Do? -- Policy Benchmark: No Single Number But the Result of Many -- A Fixed Dollar? How About Not -- No Simple Benchmarks in a Complex Economic World -- The Challenge of Anchored Benchmarks and Establishing Market Pricing -- Normalization of Interest Rates? -- Commodity Prices -- Equities -- Foreign Exchange Rates -- Silos Four Markets: Seeking Out the Linkages -- Benchmarking Nominal GDP: Growth and Inflation -- Money and Nominal Growth -- Asset Prices and Nominal GDP -- Isolationism Is Not a Viable Approach to Market Interactions -- Three-Dimensional Chess -- Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth -- Moving to Another Level -- The Costs and Benefits of Capital and Growth -- Financial Markets: The Economy's Fraternal Twin -- So, Where Do These Market Observations Take Us? -- Markets in Disequilibrium: Certainly Not Simultaneous Equilibrium in All Four Markets -- Gauging Economic Change: Economic Signals -- A Historical Context for an Effective Decision-Making Process -- A Duality in Frameworks: How We Make Decisions-Not By Economic Numbers Alone -- Framing Bias, Risk, and Uncertainty -- The Anchoring Bias: In the Data and in Policy -- Economic Evolution-Cycles and Structural Breaks -- Fed Balance Sheet-Structural Breaks and an Asymmetric Impact -- Inflation: The Unreachable Star?
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Equity Values Rise as Economic and Profit Growth Slows -- Credit Cycles -- First the Bad News-Well Not All Bad News-Banking -- Consumer Credit: A Threshold Effect? -- Monetary Policy, Decision Making, and Cognitive Bias -- How Long Is Transient?-The View of Inflation in Monetary Policy in 2020 -- Modeling Inflation: An Exercise in Ptolemaic Economics? -- Policymaking as a Source of Financial Market Dynamics -- Public Policy and Private Decision Makers -- Administered Versus Market Prices Creates Disequilibrium -- Moving from Points to Process: Where Are We Versus Where We Were -- Movement from a Focus on Points to Process -- Four Cases of Persistent Disequilibrium: What Is to Be Learned? -- Constant Disequilibrium and the Discovery of Neptune -- Interactions and the Role of Expectations -- Identifying Change, Evolution, and Regression to the Mean -- Evolution of the Economy-And Financial Benchmarks -- Non-linearity -- Regression to the Mean? The Past? -- Do Rising Rates Cause (Granger) Recessions? -- Identify Change, Distinguishing Trend and Cycle -- Inflation: Heading to Success Despite the Evidence -- Assume the Ideal Outcome in an Imperfect World -- References -- 2 The Story of the Original Boom and Bust in Western Finance: The Mississippi Bubble -- Cycles, Trends, and Corrections: Creating a First Impression -- What Generates these Cycles Around the Trend? -- None Come to Pass: Expect a Trend, Get a Cycle -- Trend Growth Despite an Up/Down History -- Inflation: Heading to Success Despite the Evidence -- Assume the Ideal Outcome in an Imperfect World -- Expectations of Mean Reversion: Getting Back to Normal -- Debt Finance -- If Not Normal, Where Are We in the Cycle? Late -- Late Cycle Pricing of High-Yield Credit -- Credit Standards: Move to Tighter Standards -- For Whatever the Reason: A Flatter Yield Curve
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Decision Making and Cognitive Biases -- Benchmark Evolution -- Linkages Between Markets -- Price Adjustment -- Evolution of Irrationality: Expectations Overwhelm the Fundamentals -- Euro Sovereign Debt -- Net Percent of Banks Tightening Credit on Commercial & -- Industrial (C& -- I) Loans -- Shifting Investor Motivations: From Income to Capital Gains -- Credit Today, Payments Tomorrow -- The Interactions Between Expectations and Shocks -- Living Life with Negative Static Stability II -- Disruption is Good, Disruption Without Direction is Chaos -- Signals on the Path to Negative Static Stability: The Race to the Bottom -- Assumption of Positive Static Stability Today -- Neutral Static Stability: Stay at New Altitude -- Before You Put that 2019 Outlook to Work-Benchmark for Expectations/Actuals, Dynamism/Change -- "Visiting Grandma's House at Thanksgiving": The Price of False Precision -- Three ingredients to Watch for Negative Static Stability -- Mid-Cycle as Misleading Benchmark for Decision Making -- Reality as Unreliable Guide -- Introducing Change and Adding Dynamism to Cycles -- Midnight Strikes: Cinderella Loses a Shoe, Lives to Dance Another Day? -- Yield Curve: Flatter not Inverted -- Finance and Real Economic Growth: Trends and Cycles -- Over the Horizon Radar: On the Other Side of the Recession Mountain -- Where We Are is Not Where We Are Going -- Looking at the Internals of Corporate Finance -- Nature of the World Disequilibrium -- When the Music is Over, Turn Out the Lights-Part I -- Private Markets, Public Policy, Recessions, and Depressions -- Shock to Market Equilibriums-Generating Negative Static Stability -- Overshooting and Irrational Exuberance: Up and Down Excesses -- Monitoring the Cycle: Three Rising Pressure Points -- Fed's Inflation Target Met -- Shrinking Margin for Error: A Sign of Imbalance in the Equity Market
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Change Information, Change the Framework of Market Interactions -- Real Final Sales: Displacement Downshift -- Inflation: PCE Deflator -- Benchmark Treasury Rates -- References -- 3 Price Determination in a Multi-Sector Global Economy -- The Story and Motivation for Price Discovery -- The Story of Inflation, Interest Rates and the Dollar in the Administration of Jimmy Carter: Motivation for Price Discovery -- Price Determination Web of Interactions Between Markets -- Growth and Goods Inflation: One-Way Link -- Domestic Demand and the Price of Capital -- Completing the Web: Dollar, Interest Rates, and Inflation -- Prices as Signal -- Time-Series Analysis: Do It Once-With Unrevised Data -- A Framework for Prices in Four Markets -- Price Determination over Both the Short and Long-Run -- Intellectual Challenges to Conventional Views of Market Interactions -- The Challenge of Interest Rate Parity -- Anchoring Bias for Inflation Target: When Actual and Policy Targets Diverge -- For Investors Let's Start at Naught -- There Are No Prompter Screens at Investment Meetings -- Works in Theory, Works in Practice -- Price Shock from the Supply Side -- Exchange Rate Surprise: The Plaza Accord -- A Focus on Price Cycles: Not Busts -- The Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Rate -- Evolution of Prices: When Slow-And-Steady May Not Win the Race -- The Equity Earnings/Price Ratio: Another Complex Pattern -- Prices and the Economy -- The 2020 Experience -- Tracing Through COVID with Market Prices: Exercise in Price Adjustment -- Prices and Economic Data-What Is the Point? -- Price Determination: Cycles, Trends and Playing from a Different Playbook -- Price Discovery: Cycles, Trends in Three Interlinked Markets Part II -- Dollar/Euro Value: Long Cycle or a Downtrend? -- Rate Setting in Global Capital Markets -- Price Determination, Policy Indetermination
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Benchmarking the Light at the End of the Tunnel -- The Disequilibrium World for Price Determination -- Vladimir and Estragon Search for the Perfect Price -- Isolated Actors in Interdependent Markets -- Structural Break -- Decide Today-Discover the Price Tomorrow -- The Element of Surprise: New Information in One Market Alters Price Expectations in Another Market -- On the Exchange Rate Front -- On the Trade Front -- On the Monetary Policy Front -- Searching for the Perfect Price: Life in an Action-Adventure Movie -- Silos Fall in a Financial Windstorm: Reality TV for Investors -- Cross-Silo Lessons from the FOMC's Non-move -- Lessons from the Chinese Devaluation-2015 -- Lessons from Disappointing Growth -- Price Discovery-Our Never-Ending Journey -- Housing-Both Cyclical and Secular Forces -- That Risk-Free Rate-A Benchmark for Investors -- Wages, Productivity and Inflation: Linkage of Factor and Output Markets -- Multiple Markets, Multiple Surprises: A Bumpy Road Ahead? -- Irrational Prices as a Challenge to an Economic Framework -- Short-Run Movements Around a Longer-Run Trend: Would the Real Long-Term Value Stand Up? (A Tell the Truth reference) -- Irrational Prices and an Uncertain Framework: Equities -- What if No Price Is the Right Price? -- Economy at Non-market Prices -- References -- 4 Credit Allocation and the Role of Interest Rates as the Price of Credit -- Credit Allocation and the Role of the Price of Credit: Housing 2005, Corporate Debt 2020 -- A Framework for Credit Allocation -- Price Determination, Policy Indetermination -- Tension in the Yield Curve and the Allocation of Capital Over Time -- Interdependent Markets -- Credit Allocation: The Story Behind the Curtain -- Interdependent Markets as Framework to Examine Credit Allocation -- Timing Issues: Interest Rates as a Video Not a Snapshot
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The Thankless Job for Private Investors and Central Banks
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Silvia, John E. Financial Markets and Economic Performance Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2021 ISBN 9783030762940
Language:
English
Subjects:
Economics
URL:
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