UID:
almafu_9959232737702883
Umfang:
1 online resource (xxi, 245 pages)
Ausgabe:
1st ed.
ISBN:
979-84-00-64951-6
,
0-313-00277-0
Anmerkung:
Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph
,
Cover -- Failing the Crystal Ball Test -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change -- 1 Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change: Methodological Problems -- METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF TRACKING CHANGES IN A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM -- THE DIMENSIONS OF A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVES AS VALIDITY CLAIMS -- THE PROCESS OF LEGITIMIZING A COLLECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEM: THE DISCURSIVE APPROACH -- THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: THE SYSTEMIC AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL VIEW -- Systemic Level Mechanisms -- Individual Level Mechanisms -- ACTIVATING THE PROCESS OF DELEGITIMATION: TRIGGER CONDITIONS OF CHANGE -- THE NATURE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: SYMBOLS AND SUBSTANCE -- THE TIMETABLE OF THE DELEGITIMATION DISCOURSE: CONTINUOUS AND REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE -- THE PROCESS OF TRANSVALUATION: REFORMIST AND RADICAL -- 2 Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency -- THE DEVELOPMENTAL VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST -- THE DEPENDENCY VIEW OF CHANGE: LINEAR PROGRESSION TOWARD A SOCIALIST UTOPIA -- HEADED TOWARD CONVERGENCE: REDEFINING THE DIRECTION OF POLITICAL CHANGE -- LEANING TO THE LEFT: THE MYTH AND REALITY OF THE OBJECTIVE SOCIAL SCIENTIST -- FROM REALPOLITIK TO MORALPOLITIK: THE INTELLECTUAL BASE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- 3 Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration -- CRUSADING AGAINST REALPOLITIK: MAINSTREAMING THE NEW INTERNATIONALISM VISION -- THE UNLIKELY CRUSADER: JIMMY CARTER AND THE EMBRACE OF NEW INTERNATIONALISM -- A COAT OF MANY COLORS: THE SHAPING OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S IRANIAN POLICY -- THE RESURGENT CONGRESS: THE AWACS SALE AS A REFERENDUM ON THE SHAH'S LEGITIMACY -- BACK HOME: THE SHAH AND THE OPPOSITION TAKE MEASURE OF THE "CARTER REVOLUTION" IN FOREIGN POLICY.
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WASHINGTON'S CHALLENGE: THE POLITICS OF THE PREDICTIVE PROCESS -- 4 In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE CYCLICAL RIOTS: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE MASS PROTEST: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE GENERAL STRIKES: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- THE ENDGAME: A VIEW FROM TEHERAN -- THE ENDGAME: THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON -- 5 Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran -- THE SHORT SPRING OF THE MODERATES: THE EMERGENCE OF A DUAL GOVERNMENT -- MAKING SENSE OF THE REVOLUTIONARY AFTERMATH: WASHINGTON'S GUIDE FOR THE PERPLEXED -- THE HOT SUMMER: THE FUNDAMENTALIST TAKEOVER -- WHAT'S IN A NAME?: WASHINGTON BETS ON THE MODERATES -- THE LONG FALL: THE PUSH FOR A FUNDAMENTALIST HEGEMONY -- THE UNWELCOME VISITOR: THE POLITICS OF THE SHAH'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED STATES AND THE SEIZURE OF THE EMBASSY -- 6 Reflections on Predictive Failures -- PARADIGMATIC FAILURE -- POLICY FAILURE -- INTELLIGENCE FAILURE -- UNDERSTANDING THE "GREAT UNKNOWN": THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND PREDICTING POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE -- References -- Index -- About the Author.
,
English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 0-275-96872-3
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.5040/9798400649516
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