Format:
1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)
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ISBN:
9781484324790
Series Statement:
IMF working paper WP/17, 220
Content:
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at 'moderate' risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected 'residuals'. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Mooney, Henry Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017 ISBN 9781484324790
Language:
English
Keywords:
Arbeitspapier
;
Graue Literatur
DOI:
10.5089/9781484324790.001
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