UID:
edoccha_9958869780602883
Umfang:
1 online resource (104 pages)
Ausgabe:
1st ed.
ISBN:
1-4648-1227-6
Serie:
World Bank Studies
Inhalt:
Drylands account for three-quarters of Sub-Saharan Africa's cropland, two-thirds of cereal production, and four-fifths of livestock holdings. Today frequent and severe shocks, especially droughts, limit the livelihood opportunities available to millions of households and undermine efforts to eradicate poverty in the drylands. Prospects for sustainable development of drylands are assessed in this book through the lens of resilience, understood here to mean the ability of people to withstand and respond to droughts and other shocks. An original model was developed expressly to consistently and coherently evaluate different type of interventions on the ground, which provided a common framework to anticipate thescale of the challenges likely to arise in drylands, as well as to generate insights into opportunities for addressing those challenges.Such modeling framework consisted in a) estimating the baseline vulnerability profiles of people living in drylands (2010), b) estimate the evolution of vulnerability by 2030 under a range of assumptions, c) calculated the number of people affectedby drought in the different administrative units of each country, and d) evaluate different types of interventions in agriculture and livestock for mitigating drought impact by calculating the potential for reducing the number of people affected for each scenario and conducting a simplified - benefit/cost (B/C) analysis for each type of intervention.For livestock, simulation models were used to estimate the impacts of feed balances, livestock production, and household income resilience interventions under different climate scenarios). For agriculture, the DSSAT (Decision Support System for-Agrotechnology Transfer) framework was used to assess the potential impact on yields likely to result from adoption of five crop farming technologies: (1) drought-tolerant varieties, (2) heat-tolerant varieties, (3) additional fertilizer, (4) agroforestry practices, (S) irrigation (6) water-harvesting techniques and selected combinations thereof.
Anmerkung:
Front Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Editors and Authors -- Abbreviations -- Overview -- Background -- The Model -- The Interventions -- The Results -- Policy Implications -- Cost Implications of Interventions -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- Defining "Drylands" -- Definition of "Resilience" -- Note -- References -- Chapter 2 Methodology -- Country Coverage -- Main Assumptions and Sources of Data -- Relationship between Resilience and Poverty -- Estimation of 2010 Vulnerability Profiles -- Estimation of 2030 Vulnerability Profiles -- Moving from "Vulnerable to Drought" to "Affected by Drought" -- Interventions -- Resilience Analysis for Livestock Systems -- Resilience Analysis for Rainfed Cropping Systems -- Resilience Analysis for Irrigation -- Cost Estimates -- Consolidating the Results of the Resilience Analysis -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 Results -- Baseline Vulnerability, 2010 -- Baseline Vulnerability, 2030 -- Intervention Results -- Consolidated Results -- Do Investments in Resilience Pay Off? -- References -- Chapter 4 Policy Implications -- Reference -- Boxes -- Box 2.1 Projecting Irrigation Expansion Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 -- Box 4.1 Selected Recommendations to Make Current Livelihoods More Resilient -- Figures -- Figure 1.1 Poverty Head Count by Aridity Zone, Selected East and West African Countries, 2010 -- Figure 2.1 Model Coverage: Drylands Population Equivalents for Countries Included in the Analysis -- Figure 2.2 Income Sources in Drylands vs. Non-Drylands, Selected East and West African Countries, 2010 -- Figure 2.3 Integration of Livestock Models -- Figure 2.4 Burkina Faso: Cumulative Distribution of Cattle Ownership -- Figure 2.5 Share of the Pastoral Population (%) above the Resilience Level (2010), by Country, Disaggregated by Pure Pastoralists and Agro-Pastoralists.
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Figure 2.6 Share of Agriculture in Total Employment, Selected Lower- and Middle-Income Countries -- Figure 2.7 Share of the Pastoral Population (%) above Resilience Level (2030) under the Baseline Scenario, by Country -- Figure 2.8 Estimated Population Affected in a Polygon as a Function of Deviations in the Drought Index from the Benchmark -- Figure 2.9 Africa RiskView Estimates of Drought-Affected People in Mauritania Expected for Each of 25 Simulated Yield Years -- Figure 2.10 Estimated Unit Cost (US/Person Made Resilient/Year, Expressed on a Log Scale) under Baseline Climate and Health and Early Offtake Scenarios -- Figure 3.1 Exposure Level in East and West Africa, 2010 -- Figure 3.2 Estimated Drylands Population Dependent on Agriculture, by Country and Livelihood Type (Millions of People), Selected West and East African Countries, 2010 -- Figure 3.3 Percentage of People Vulnerable to and Affected by Drought, Selected West and East African Countries, 2010 -- Figure 3.4 Projected Rural Population in 2030 (2010 = 100, Medium Fertility Scenario), Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.5 Number of People in Drylands Projected to Be Dependent on Agriculture in 2030 (2010 = 100, Medium Fertility Scenario), Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.6 Percentage Change in Agriculture-Dependent Population, 2010-30, by Livelihood System under Medium-Fertility Scenario -- Figure 3.7 Share of 2010 Population Likely to Drop Out of Pastoralism by 2030, Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.8 People Vulnerable to/Affected by Drought in 2030 (2010 = 100%) -- Figure 3.9 Share of 2030 GDP Required to Protect Drought-Affected Population through Social Safety Net Interventions, Selected West and East African Countries.
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Figure 3.10 Vulnerable People in Drylands in 2030 (2010 = 100, Medium-Fertility Scenario), Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.11 Vulnerable People in Drylands in 2030 (2010 = 100, Different Fertility Scenarios), Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.12 The Effect of the Two Key Interventions on Vulnerability Levels under the Baseline Weather Scenario -- Figure 3.13 The Cumulative Effect of Key Interventions on Vulnerability Levels under the Baseline Weather Scenario -- Figure 3.14 Reduction in Exits from Pastoralism because of Technological Interventions, Selected West and East African Countries, 2030 -- Figure 3.15 Relative Contributions of Technological Interventions in Reducing Vulnerability, Selected West and East African Countries, 2030 -- Figure 3.16 Relative Contributions of Technological Interventions in Reducing Vulnerability, by Aridity Zone, 2030 -- Figure 3.17 Importance of Targeting Technological Interventions -- Figure 3.18 Estimated Reduction in the Average Number of Drought-Affected People through Use of FMNR and Other Technologies by 2030 -- Figure 3.19 Land Area with Irrigation Investment Potential under Alternative Assumptions of Irrigation Costs and IRRs -- Figure 3.20 Beneficiary Population under Alternative Assumptions of Irrigation Costs and IRRs -- Figure 3.21 Contribution of Technological Interventions to Resilience in 2030 (2010 = 100%), Selected West and East African Countries -- Figure 3.22 Benefit/Cost Ratios of Resilience Interventions, Selected West and East African Countries -- Maps -- Map 1.1 Dryland Regions of West and East Africa -- Map 1.2 Shift and Expansion by 2050 of Dryland Areas Caused by Climate Change -- Map 2.1 Data Availability by Type of Intervention -- Map 2.2 Crop by Aridity Zone/Admin Unit.
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Map 3.1 Projected Number of Drought-Affected People, Annual Average, Selected Countries, 2010 -- Tables -- Table 1.1 Aridity Zones Defined -- Table 1.2 Shares of Households in Transition across Poverty Status, Ethiopia, 1994-2009 -- Table 2.1 Approach and Assumptions Used in Estimating Vulnerability in the Model -- Table 2.2 Models Used for the Resilience Analysis, by Aridity Zone -- Table 2.3 How the Various Aridity Classes Are Aggregated into Aridity Zones -- Table 2.4 Estimated Agriculture-Dependent Population in East and West Africa, 2010 -- Table 2.5 Three Dimensions of Vulnerability in Africa's Drylands, 2010 (Million People) -- Table 2.6 Gini Coefficient of Livestock Ownership, Selected West and East African Countries -- Table 2.7 Mauritania Vulnerability Profile (Population, Millions) -- Table 2.8 Coverage of Resilience Interventions -- Table 2.9 Maize, Millet, and Sorghum Cropping Calendar, Selected West and East African Countries -- Table B2.1.1 Current Inventory of Large Dams in African Countries -- Table 2.10 Aquifer Classification in British Geological Survey Groundwater Data -- Table 2.11 Criteria Used to Assess Environmental Suitability of Large-Scale Irrigation Investment (within the Delineated Command Areas of Reservoirs) -- Table 2.12 Criteria Used to Assess Environmental Suitability of Small-Scale Irrigation Investment -- Table 2.13 Estimated Annual Costs of Resilience Interventions (US Billions/year) -- Table 2.14 Average Cost/Person/Year of the Main Interventions in Five Dryland Livestock Development Projects (US) -- Table 2.15 Assumptions about the Allocation of Adoption- and Non-Adoption-Related Costs -- Table 2.16 Summary of Costs (Average 2011-14 Prices, US Billions) of Health and Early Offtake Interventions and Their Distribution between the Public and Private Sectors (2011-30).
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Table 2.17 Public Costs of Technology Transfer (US/hectare) -- Table 2.18 Private Costs of Technology Adoption (US/hectare) -- Table 2.19 Irrigation Development Unit Cost Assumptions (US/hectare) -- Table 2.20 Coverage of Livelihood Modeling by Aridity Zone -- Table 3.1 Minimum Number of TLU per Household Required to Attain Resilience -- Table 3.2 Livestock Population Growth (Offtake + Population Growth), 2012-30, as Affected by Technology and Climate -- Table 3.3 Irrigation Development Potential by 2030 (1,000 ha, Medium-Cost-5% IRR), Selected West and East African Countries -- Table 3.4 Estimated Beneficiary Population (1,000 People, Medium-Cost 5% IRR), Selected West and East African Countries -- Table 3.5 Beneficiary Population by Aridity Zone (1,000 People, Medium-Cost-5% IRR).
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-4648-1226-8
Sprache:
Englisch
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