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Format: 1 Online-Ressource (xxi, 458 Seiten) : , Illustrationen.

ISBN: 978-3-031-48553-4

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-48552-7

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-48554-1

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-48555-8

Language: English

Subjects: Economics

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-48553-4

URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)

URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)

URL: Volltext  (URL des Erstveröffentlichers)

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Format: 1 Online-Ressource (xxi, 458 pages) , illustrations (some color)

ISBN: 9783031485534 , 303148553X

Content: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone, for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty. Richard J. Arend is the L.L. Bean/Lee Surace Chair in Strategic Management at the University of Southern Maine, USA. He specializes in strategic decision-making under uncertainty and in the critical assessments of the current theories of strategy and of entrepreneurship. He has authored two previous books – one on building better theory and one on wicked entrepreneurship

Note: Includes bibliographical references and index , Chapter 1. Overview of this Book on Strategic Decision-Making under Uncertainty -- Chapter 2. Confusion over Uncertainty in Decision-Making -- Chapter 3. Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Chapter 4. Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 5. Span of Effects of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 6. Negative Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making).-Chapter 7. Positive Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- Chapter 8. Optimal Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 9. Measures of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 10. Multi-Dimensionality of Uncertainty -- Chapter 11. Uncertainty’s Connections to Entrepreneurship -- Chapter 12. Uncertainty’s Connections to Strategy -- Chapter 13. Uncertainty’s Connections to Creativity, Art & Music -- Chapter 14. Uncertainty’s Connections to Spirituality/ Religion -- Chapter 15. Uncertainty’s Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology & Evolution -- Chapter 16. Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty -- Chapter 17. A New Typology of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Chapter 18. Best Treatments & Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 19. Conclusions of Analysis -- Chapter 20. Supplement on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence.

Additional Edition: ISBN 9783031485527

Additional Edition: ISBN 3031485521

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 3031485521

Additional Edition: ISBN 9783031485527

Language: English

URL: lizenzpflichtig

UID:

Format: xxi, 458 Seiten : , Illustrationen.

ISBN: 978-3-031-48552-7

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-031-48553-4

Language: English

Subjects: Economics

URL: Inhaltsverzeichnis

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Format: 1 online resource (466 pages)

Edition: First edition.

ISBN: 3-031-48553-X

Note: Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Overview of This Book on Strategic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty -- Why This Book on Uncertainty? -- Notable Takes on Uncertainty -- Further Preliminaries -- More Notable Takes on Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as Good or Bad or Both? -- Examples of the Bads of Uncertainty -- Examples of the Goods of Uncertainty -- Effective Management of Uncertainty -- Our Perspective (Business-Based, Applying Western/Democratic Values) -- Delineation from Risk (and Probability) -- Hence, Non-Mathematicalness -- The Heterogeneity of Uncertainty -- Decision-Making and Knowns -- Creating the Decision-Making Model -- Complications -- Big Questions -- Philosophy of Science -- Goals -- Resistance (…Is Eventually Futile) -- Why This Book Now -- Plan of Analysis -- References -- 2 Confusion over Uncertainty in Decision-Making -- Why Clarity Is Important -- What Confusion Exists -- What Terms Are Confused -- Sources of Confusion -- How to Unconfuse -- References -- 3 Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Why Definitional Precision Is Important -- Classic Definitions -- Uncertainty as the Inability to Assign Probabilities -- Uncertainty as Unknown Cause-and-Effect Relationships -- Uncertainty-as-Unpredictability -- Knight's Definition of Uncertainty -- Ellsberg's Definition of Ambiguity -- Alternative Definitions of Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as Unknowability -- Uncertainty as Novelty -- Uncertainty as Non-Optimizability -- Uncertainty as Doubt -- Contrasts to Full Information -- The Amount of Uncertainty Question -- The Epistemological Question -- References -- 4 Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Why the Causes of Uncertainties are Important -- Reminder-How a Cause's Symptoms Can Manifest in a Decision to Make it Non-Optimizable. , Sources of Uncertainty Related to the Problem Itself -- Sources in the Problem Characteristics -- Novelty/Uniqueness -- Complexity of Phenomena -- Non-linear Dynamic Systems and Chaos -- Ill-Defined Problems -- Relationships with Time -- Other (Pointed) Issues -- Sources in the Problem's External Context (Exogenous to the Decision-Maker) -- New Technology -- The Inherent Randomness of Nature -- Luck [as Randomness for Humans] -- Inconsistent (Often Rivalrous) External Human Behaviors -- Dynamic Aspects of Inconsistent External Human Behaviors (as Unpredictable Reactions) -- Conflicting External Reports -- Sources in the Problem's Internal Context (Endogenous to the Decision-Maker) -- Change and Its Consequences (Inside) -- Communications Issues -- Personal Artefacts and Choices -- Biases and Errors in Statistical Analysis -- Blissful Ignorance and Dangerous Implicit Assumptions -- Limits of Analysis -- General Limits to Problem Analysis -- Laws and Regulations -- Measurement Error -- Computational Limits over Current Facts -- Mathematical Limits -- System-atic Errors -- Incomplete Modeling -- Empirical Non-Verifiability -- Organizational Limits to Problem Analysis -- Lack of Investigatory Time -- Lack of Other Investigatory Resources -- Human Limits -- Lack of Control -- Individual Limits to Problem Analysis -- Lack of Expertise -- Epistemic Issues/Decision-Maker Weakness -- References -- 5 Span of Effects of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- The Impacts of Uncertainty -- Impacts on Entities -- On Survival -- On Feelings -- On Challenges -- On Organization -- On Compensation for Experiencing Uncertainty -- On Rational Behaviors and Choices -- Impacts on Entity Reactions -- On Behaviors to Reduce or Accept Uncertainty -- On Behaviors to Explore or Exploit Uncertainty -- Impacts on Understanding -- Impacts on Theorizing -- Impacts on Lab Studies. , Impacts on Communications and Measures -- References -- 6 Negative Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- Costly Uncertainties -- Negative Effects of Uncertainty -- Drivers of Negative Effects -- Contexts for Negative Effects -- Dealing with Negative Effects -- References -- 7 Positive Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- The Existential Positive Effects of Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as a Signal of Potential Rewards -- Conceptual Benefits from Uncertainty -- Real Benefits from Uncertainty -- Conditions for Benefits -- Who Benefits -- References -- 8 Optimal Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Why a Goldilocksian 'Amount' of Uncertainty Can Exist -- At What Level of Analysis? -- For What Ends? -- How to Generate It -- References -- 9 Measures of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- The Importance of Measuring Uncertainty and Its Characteristics -- Approaches to Measurement -- Practical Measures -- Conceptual Measures -- Immeasurability -- References -- 10 Multi-Dimensionality of Uncertainty -- Why Uncertainty Is Multi-Dimensional -- Which Dimensions? -- Bases for These Dimensions -- Dealing with Multi-Dimensionality -- References -- 11 Uncertainty's Connections to Entrepreneurship -- Why Uncertainty Connects to Entrepreneurship -- Which Uncertainties and Activities? -- Drivers of the Entrepreneurship Connection -- The Context of the Entrepreneurship Connection -- Managing the Entrepreneurship Connection -- References -- 12 Uncertainty's Connections to Strategy -- Why Uncertainty Connects to Strategy -- Uncertainty and Theories of the Firm (and of Firm Rents) -- Top Management's Focus on Uncertainty -- Uncertainty and Contracting -- Deeper into Uncertainty -- Drivers of the Strategy Connection -- The Context of the Strategy Connection -- Uncertainties and Activities -- Managing the Strategy Connection -- References. , 13 Uncertainty's Connections to Creativity, Art, and Music -- Connecting Uncertainty to Creativity -- Connecting Uncertainty to Art and Music -- Why the Connections Exist -- Philosophical Questions Raised -- References -- 14 Uncertainty's Connections to Spirituality/Religion -- Connecting Uncertainty to Spirituality and Religion -- Connecting Spirituality to Decision-Making under Uncertainty -- Importance of Uncertainty in Religion -- Drivers of Uncertainty in Religion -- Offering Some Balance -- References -- 15 Uncertainty's Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology, and Evolution -- Connecting Uncertainty to Curiosity -- Connecting Uncertainty to Neurobiology -- Connecting Uncertainty to Cognition -- Connecting Uncertainty to Evolution -- Drivers of the Connections -- Philosophical Implications -- References -- 16 Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty -- Identifying the Failures to Engage -- Drivers of the Failures -- Why Probability-Based Approaches Fail -- How That Failure Extends to Subjective Expected Utility -- Alternatives -- References -- 17 A New Typology of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Introduction to a New Typology -- Reminders About the Main Assumption and Definition -- The Plan for This Chapter -- Past Uncertainty Types and Labels -- Incomplete Information -- Knightian Uncertainty -- Ellsbergian Ambiguity -- Ignorance -- Aleatory Uncertainty -- Unknown Unknowns -- Equivocality -- Vagueness -- Epistemic Uncertainty -- Other Potential Types -- The New Primary Typology -- Cleaning Up the Minor Issues Involved -- The Relevant Secondary Typology -- Step One-Assessing the Background Facts -- State Uncertainty/ Uncertainty about the Present Reality -- Uncertainty about the Past -- Step Two-Understanding the Goals -- Step Three-Identifying the Stakeholders -- Step Four-Recognizing All Possible Relevant Options/Choices. , Step Five-Identifying All Possible Outcomes (Relevant to the Choices) -- Step Six-Calculating the (Monetary) Payoffs of the Outcomes -- Step Seven-Considering the Ethics and Values of the Outcomes [separated from Goals] -- Step Eight-Calculating the (Overall) Worth of the Outcomes [Utilities] -- Step Nine-Assigning Probabilities to the Uncontrollable Outcome-Affecting Events -- Step Ten-Including Any Timing Issues Involved in the Process -- Step Eleven-Applying the Relevant Constraints -- A Line of Demarcation in the Decision-Making Process -- Step Twelve-Identifying the Dynamic Links in the Extended Process -- Step Thirteen-Assessing the Dynamics of Competition -- Unknown Effects on Rival Targets -- Unknown Responses of Targets -- Unknown Target Intensions -- Unknown Target Decision Constraints -- A Tertiary Typology -- Dimensions of Specifying What Is Uncertain -- Dimensions of Specifying Why the Uncertainty Exists -- Dimensions of Specifying Where the Uncertainty Exists -- Revisiting a Selection of Uncertainty Sources to Highlight the Separation from Types -- Measurement Uncertainty -- Model Uncertainty -- Environmental Uncertainty -- Endogenous Uncertainty and Knowable Unknowns -- Supplement on Knightian Uncertainty Issues -- Knight's Model as a Theory of Rents -- The Three Dangers of the Knightian Model -- The Premise Danger -- The Implication Danger -- The Definition Danger -- Discussion -- References -- 18 Best Treatments and Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making) -- Introduction to Uncertainty Treatment -- Part One-Treating the Treatable Uncertainties -- Bucket One-Uncovering Unknowns via Discovery, Search, and Monitoring -- Bucket Two-Uncovering Unknowns via Experimentation, Experience, Analysis, and Modeling -- Experimentation -- Sensemaking and Modeling -- Experience and Alertness -- Inference from Big Data. , Other Active Learning Approaches.

Additional Edition: ISBN 9783031485527

Language: English

UID:

Format: XXI, 458 p. 26 illus., 1 illus. in color. , online resource.

Edition: 1st ed. 2024.

ISBN: 9783031485534

Content: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about 'unknowns' while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as 'knowable' (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat 'unknowables' as 'shapeable' or 'discoverable'. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone, for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty. Richard J. Arend is the L.L. Bean/Lee Surace Chair in Strategic Management at the University of Southern Maine, USA. He specializes in strategic decision-making under uncertainty and in the critical assessments of the current theories of strategy and of entrepreneurship. He has authored two previous books - one on building better theory and one on wicked entrepreneurship.

Note: Chapter 1. Overview of this Book on Strategic Decision-Making under Uncertainty -- Chapter 2. Confusion over Uncertainty in Decision-Making -- Chapter 3. Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Chapter 4. Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 5. Span of Effects of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 6. Negative Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making).-Chapter 7. Positive Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- Chapter 8. Optimal Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 9. Measures of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 10. Multi-Dimensionality of Uncertainty -- Chapter 11. Uncertainty's Connections to Entrepreneurship -- Chapter 12. Uncertainty's Connections to Strategy -- Chapter 13. Uncertainty's Connections to Creativity, Art & Music -- Chapter 14. Uncertainty's Connections to Spirituality/ Religion -- Chapter 15. Uncertainty's Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology & Evolution -- Chapter 16. Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty -- Chapter 17. A New Typology of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Chapter 18. Best Treatments & Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making) -- Chapter 19. Conclusions of Analysis -- Chapter 20. Supplement on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence.

In: Springer Nature eBook

Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9783031485527

Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9783031485541

Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9783031485558

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-48553-4

URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48553-4