UID:
almahu_9949377214702882
Umfang:
1 online resource (316 pages)
ISBN:
9780128230107
Inhalt:
"Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective focuses on the dynamic nature of flood risks and follows a systemic approach - including environmental, socioeconomic and socio-technical factors for modeling and managing flood risk change. Readers will gain a more complete picture of the topic for understanding the complexity of flood risk change, both from human and natural causes of flooding. The book includes a mix of theory (introduction to complex system science from the flood risk management perspective) and case studies. It features maps and figures focusing on the system components as well as on the dynamic interactions between the drivers of change."--
Anmerkung:
Front Cover -- Flood Risk Change -- Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- 1- Introduction -- References -- 2 - Key drivers of flood risk change -- Principles of flood risk analysis -- Environmental changes -- Environmental changes in the upstream catchment -- Dams, reservoirs, and regulated lakes -- Land use changes at catchment scale -- Changes in the glacial and periglacial environment -- Natural climate variability -- Environmental changes in the floodplain -- Changes in river morphology at reach scale -- Climate changes -- Socioeconomic changes -- Coevolution of key drivers of change -- References -- 3 - Disentangling drivers of change -- Analysis and modeling framework -- Simulations driven by global and regional climate models -- Sensitivity analysis and scenario-neutral approaches -- The storyline approach -- The retromodel experiment approach -- Quantifying the isolated effects of drivers of change with model experiments -- The Kander river deviation of 1714 AD and its effects on hydrological change -- History of the Kander river deviation -- A cascade of unintended consequences -- Anthropogenic interventions following the Kander river deviation -- Model experiment setup for quantifying the cumulative effects of human interventions to river systems on flood risk change -- The coupled hydrological-hydraulic model -- Reconstruction of the historic natural river morphology -- The human dimension of hydrological change -- Analyzing the cumulative effects of river training measures on flood impacts -- Hydrodynamic model -- Flood inundation of recent flood events on a counterfactual river morphology -- Defining extreme rainfall scenarios -- The cumulative effects of human interventions to the river system on the hydrology of probable maximum floods.
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The cumulative effects of human interventions to the river system on flood impacts of probable maximum floods -- Quantifying inner-basin flood risk transfer -- Assessing changes to flood hazard maps due to climatic changes -- Changes in sediment supply for torrential floods -- Analyzing spatiotemporal dynamics of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation -- Aare river -- Reuss river -- Thur river -- Rhine river -- Ticino river -- Rhone river -- Inn river -- Analyzing changes in flood exposure -- Model experiment setup for analyzing change in flood exposure -- Analyzing the effects of land use planning on flood exposure -- Modeling the effects of changing vulnerability on flood risk change -- Analyzing the effects of feedback and time lags on flood risk change -- Feedback effects of fluvial erosion and riverbed aggradation on flood risk change -- Sensitivity of discharge capacity to fluvial erosion rates -- Sensitivity of erosion rates to changes in peak flow -- Sensitivity of flood risk to erosion rates -- Feedback effects of landscape shaping flood events on hydrological change -- Feedback effects of flood events on the initiation of flood protection projects -- The levee effect -- The societal memory effect on house construction activities in flood-prone areas -- Time lags in the implementation of flood risk management measures -- Other aspects that are contributing to the complexity of flood risk management -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 4 - Rivers and floodplains as complex adaptive systems? -- Characteristics of complex systems -- Numerosity and diversity -- Order and disorder -- Nested structure, modularity, and multiple scales -- Feedback -- Nonlinearity -- Nonequilibrium, fluctuations, episodical changes -- Emergence, self-organization, self-regulation -- History and memory, path dependency -- Robustness -- Adaptive behavior.
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Uncertainty -- Long-term evolution of floodplains seen from a complex systems perspective -- Complexity of flood risk change -- Trajectories and pathways of flood risk evolution -- Sensitivity to climatic changes-short-term future pathways -- References -- 5 - Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of flood risk change -- Examples of flood risk change analysis -- The tool "Flood memory" -- The tool "Flood damage potential" -- Method -- Cartography -- Results -- Conclusions from the complexity perspective -- The tool "Flood damage simulator" -- Method -- Factors that determine flood risk change -- Urban densification -- Property-level flood protection measures -- Flood protection measures -- Scenarios -- Results and discussions -- Conclusions from the complexity perspective -- The tool "Flood risk dynamics"-flood risk change at centennial scale -- Method -- River morphology and flood hazard -- Elements at risk -- Flood risk evolution -- Results and discussion -- Conclusions from the complexity perspective -- The tool "Flood dynamics"-flood impact variability at hourly scales -- Method -- Rainfall scenarios -- Hydrologic model -- Hydraulic model -- Flood impact model -- Codesign of the graphical user interface -- Results -- Conclusions from the complexity perspective -- Decision-making leads to the emergence of spatial patterns of flood risk change -- Method -- Results -- Conclusions from the complexity perspective -- Monitoring flood risk change -- Modeling framework for considering complexity in the analysis of flood risk change -- Development of coupled component models -- Model coupler -- Development of model components -- Data sources -- Data for modeling flood hazards -- Data for modeling elements at risk -- Data for modeling vulnerability -- Perspectives of coupled component models in hydrology -- Context for hydrology -- Hydrology as a context.
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Feedbacks: unifying top-down and bottom-up modeling approaches -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 6 - Confronting complexity in flood risk management -- A new perspective on flood risks -- Lessons learnt from the Kander river deviation -- Levers for controlling flood risk in the long term -- Implications for flood risk research and management -- References -- Index -- A -- C -- D -- E -- F -- G -- H -- I -- K -- L -- M -- N -- P -- Q -- R -- S -- T -- U -- V -- W -- Z -- Back Cover.
Weitere Ausg.:
Print version: Zischg, Andreas Paul Flood Risk Change San Diego : Elsevier,c2022 ISBN 9780128220115
Sprache:
Englisch
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