UID:
almafu_9960963610802883
Format:
1 online resource (228 pages)
ISBN:
0-300-24824-5
Content:
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive-this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Note:
Includes index.
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Frontmatter --
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Contents --
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Figures --
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Preface --
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Acknowledgments --
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Chapter 1. Why do we need forecasts? --
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Chapter 2. How do we make forecasts? --
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Chapter 3. Where are we before we forecast? --
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Chapter 4. How do we judge forecasts? --
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Chapter 5. How uncertain are our forecasts? --
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Chapter 6. Are some real world events unpredictable? --
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Chapter 7. Why do systematic forecast failures occur? --
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Chapter 8. Can we avoid systematic forecast failures? --
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Chapter 9. How do we automatically detect breaks? --
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Chapter 10. Can we forecast breaks before they hit? --
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Chapter 11. Can we improve forecasts during breaks? --
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Chapter 12. Would more information be useful? --
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Chapter 13. Can econometrics improve forecasting? --
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Chapter 14. Can you trust economic forecasts? --
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Chapter 15. Further reading --
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Index
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In English.
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0-300-24466-5
Language:
English
DOI:
10.12987/9780300248241
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