Format:
1 Online-Ressource (xliv, 321 Seiten)
Edition:
New edition
ISBN:
1400888816
,
9781400888818
Content:
Frontmatter --Contents --Acknowledgments --Preface --Preface to the 2017 Edition --CHAPTER 1. Quantifying the Unquantifiable --CHAPTER 2. The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism --CHAPTER 3. Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge --CHAPTER 4. Honoring Reputational Bets --CHAPTER 5. Contemplating Counterfactuals --CHAPTER 6. The Hedgehogs Strike Back --CHAPTER 7. Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? --CHAPTER 8. Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability --Methodological Appendix --Technical Appendix --Index
Content:
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts
Note:
Includes bibliographical references and index
,
In English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780691175973
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1282259172
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0691178283
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0691175977
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780691178288
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0691123020
Additional Edition:
ISBN 0691128715
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1400830311
Additional Edition:
ISBN 9780691178288
Additional Edition:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe
Language:
English
Author information:
Tetlock, Philip E. 1954-
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