UID:
almahu_9949599074002882
Umfang:
1 online resource :
,
illustrations
Ausgabe:
First edition.
ISBN:
9780429488405
,
0429488408
,
9780429948800
,
0429948808
,
9780429948794
,
0429948794
,
9780429948787
,
0429948786
Serie:
ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society
Inhalt:
"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--
Anmerkung:
Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations).
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1201/9780429488405
URL:
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780429488405
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