UID:
kobvindex_ZLB34973560
ISBN:
9781324021315
Content:
" A provocative and urgent analysis of the U.S.8211 China rivalry.It has become conventional wisdom that America and China are running a superpower marathon that may last a century. Yet Hal Brands and Michael Beckley pose a counterintuitive question: What if the sharpest phase of that competition is more like a decade-long sprint? The Sino-American contest is driven by clashing geopolitical interests and a stark ideological dispute over whether authoritarianism or democracy will dominate the 21st century. But both history and China's current trajectory suggest that this rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s. China is at a perilous moment: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet losing confidence that time is on its side. Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever. China has already started down this path. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world's future. Over the long run, the Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe8212 but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real. America, Brands and Beckley argue, will still need a sustainable approach to winning a protracted global competition. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead. "
Content:
Biographisches: " Michael Beckley is associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute." Biographisches: " Hal Brands is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute." Rezension(3): "〈a href=http://www.publishersweekly.com target=blank〉〈img src=https://images.contentreserve.com/pw_logo.png alt=Publisher's Weekly border=0 /〉〈/a〉: May 23, 2022 Tufts political scientist Beckley ( Unrivaled ) and Johns Hopkins global affairs scholar Brands (coauthor, The Lessons of Tragedy ) deliver a robust reconsideration of Chinese-American relations. Sketching the scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2025, the authors argue that such an attack would not be the “inevitable outcome of China’s growing strength and confidence,” but a gamble made by Chinese leaders fearful that the country is on the cusp of decline. According to Beckley and Brands, China is rapidly approaching a “slow-motion demographic catastrophe” brought about by the decades-long “One Child Policy.” The authors also note that China’s historic enemy, Japan, is engaged in a massive military buildup supported by the U.S. and contend that bad loans made through China’s Belt and Road Initiative will result in “hundreds of billions of dollars in losses.” To combat the threat of Chinese aggression, Beckley and Brands call on U.S. leaders to follow President Truman’s strategy of countering Soviet influence in the years after WWII. Specifically, they advocate for the hacking of China’s censorship and surveillance systems and the establishment of a “free-world economic bloc” that can outspend China on research and development. Though the authors underplay the risks involved, they provide plenty of evidence that China is not as mighty as it seems. The result is a provocative and noteworthy contribution to the debate over what the U.S. should do about China." Rezension(4): "〈a href=http://www.kirkusreviews.com target=blank〉〈img src=https://images.contentreserve.com/kirkus_logo.png alt=Kirkus border=0 /〉〈/a〉: June 15, 2022 A study of the growing urgency of the geopolitical competition between China and the U.S. Many readers are aware of America's ongoing competition with China, but Brands and Beckley, specialists in geopolitical history and strategy, express the full gravity of the situation. Their thesis is that China's growth recently peaked and has begun to decline, but the ambition of its leaders to become the preeminent global power has not lessened. The greatest geopolitical catastrophes occur at the intersection of ambition and desperation, they write. Xi Jinping's China will soon be driven by plenty of both. The internal difficulties of the country are escalating, with staggering demographic problems, a stagnating economy, and depletion of resources. By 2030, these issues will dramatically undermine China's capacity to assert itself on the global stage. As such, write the authors, if China wants to make its big move, it will have to do so very soon. This was the case, they argue, with Germany in the period between the turn of the century and World War II as well as with Japan in the 1930s. In the current situation, the most obvious flashpoint is Taiwan, both to unify China (as Beijing sees it) and as a geopolitical statement of assertion. Therefore, the U.S. must actively manage the short-term crisis and emerge well placed for the long game. Such a strategy might include a treatylike agreement with Taiwan to station U.S. forces there while strengthening other partnerships, including with international organizations. China has a pattern of making threatening statements to anyone who disagrees with its plans, providing an opening for the U.S. to show what a China-dominated world would look like. Brands and Beckley are spot-on in the majority of their analysis, but one wonders if American leaders have the political will and diplomatic competence to implement their recommendations. Nevertheless, the authors have given us much to think about, and much of it is frightening. An authoritative, worrying analysis about the prospects for open conflict within the next few years. COPYRIGHT(2022) Kirkus Reviews, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. "
Language:
English
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