UID:
almafu_9958107709702883
Umfang:
1 online resource (69 p.)
ISBN:
9786613872616
,
9781462361779
,
1462361773
,
9781455239764
,
1455239763
,
9781283560160
,
128356016X
,
9781455214907
,
1455214906
Serie:
IMF Working Papers
Inhalt:
We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with imports recovering to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years. In contrast, exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected, and they remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term.
Anmerkung:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; Figure 1. Growth Rate of World Real Imports; Figure 2. Evolution of Imports in Crisis and Non-Crisis Countries; II. Methodology; III. A First Look at the Data; Figure 3. Distribution of Crises across Time and Regions; Table 1. Sample Characteristics; Figure 4. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises: A First Look; IV. Gravity Framework Results; A. Main Findings; Table 2. Imports and Exports Following Crises: Pooled Panel Gravity Estimates, 1970-2009
,
Figure 5. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises: Gravity ModelTable 3. Tariff Equivalent Trade Costs; Figure 6a. Evolution of Exchange Rates Following Crises; Figure 6b. Why a Persistent Drop in Imports Following Crises?; B. Robustness; Figure 7. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises: Robustness; Table 4. Imports and Exports Following Crises: Robustness; Table 5. Reverse Causality Issues; Figure 8. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises: Robustness; V. Differences in Trade Dynamics Across Products, During Global Downturns, and Over Time
,
A. Do Postcrisis Trade Dynamics Vary Across Products?Figure 9. Evolution of Imports and Exports for Different Product Categories; Table 6. Imports and Exports of Various Product Categories Following Crises; B. Are Postcrisis Trade Dynamics Different During Global Downturns?; Figure 10. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises during Global Downturns; Figure 11. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises in Importer and Exporter; C. Do Postcrisis Trade Dynamics Vary Over Time?; Figure 12. Evolution of Imports and Exports Following Crises: Pre and Post- 1990; VI. Conclusions
,
Appendix 1. Data SourcesAppendix 2. Time-series Properties of Imports and GDP; Table A1. Summary Statistics to Main Variables; Table A2. Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests; Table A3. Data Sources; References; Footnotes
,
English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 9781455211814
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1455211818
Sprache:
Englisch
Bookmarklink
