UID:
edoccha_9958116969902883
Format:
1 online resource (38 p.)
ISBN:
1-4843-2641-5
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1-4755-4332-8
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1-4843-2658-X
Series Statement:
IMF Working Papers
Content:
Mozambique has great potential in natural gas reserves and if liquefied/commercialized the sum of taxes and other fiscal revenue from natural gas will, at its peak, reach roughly one third of total fiscal revenue. Recent developments in the natural resource sector have triggered a fresh round of much needed infrastructure investment. This paper uses the DIGNAR model to simulate alternative public investment scaling-up plans in alternative LNG market scenarios. Results show that while a conservative approach, which simply awaits LNG revenues, would miss significant current growth opportunities, an aggressive approach would likely meet absorptive capacity constraints and imply a much bigger (and, in an adverse scenario, unsustainable) build-up of public debt. A gradual scaling up approach represents indeed a desirable path, as it allows anticipating some, though not all, of the LNG revenue and, even in an adverse scenario, keeping public debt at sustainable levels. Structural reforms affecting selection, governance and execution of public investment projects would significantly enhance the extent to which public capital is accumulated and impact non-resource growth and, ultimately, debt sustainability.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Natural Gas Sector in Mozamique: An Overview; Tables; Table 1. Countries with World's Largest Proven Natural Gas Reserves; III. Predicting LNG Revenue: The FARI model; Table 2. Representative EPCC Parameters; IV. Public Investment in Mozambique; Figures; Figure 1. LNG Sector Contribution to GDP and Fiscal Revenue; V. The Macroeconomic Effects of Investment Scaling-Ups; A. The DIGNAR Model; Figure 2. Mozambique: Public Capital Expenditure, 1991-2012; B. Scenarios of LNG production; C. Simulation results
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Figure 3. LNG Revenue Simulations in the Baseline and Adverse Scenarios.Figure 4. Public Investment Scaling-Ups and Growth Outcomes.; Figure 5. Fiscal Consequences of Public Investment Scaling-Ups.; D. Structural reforms: the impact of governance and project selection; VI. Conclusion; Figure 6. The Effects of Improvements in Project Selection and Better Governance and Execution; References; Appendices; A. DIGNAR model details; Households; Firms; Government; Identities and market clearing conditions; B. First-order conditions; Demand functions for tradable and non-tradable goods
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Labour supply in the tradable and non-tradable sectorOptimizing households' decisions; Rule-of-thumb households' decisions; Non-tradable sector's decisions; Tradable sector's decisions; C. Calibration; Table 3. Calibration
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4843-2640-7
Language:
English
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