UID:
edoccha_9958084557902883
Umfang:
1 online resource (43 p.)
ISBN:
1-4983-4174-8
,
1-4983-4541-7
,
1-4983-4293-0
Serie:
IMF Staff Country Reports
Inhalt:
This Selected Issues paper discusses reasons behind rise of inflation in Philippines. The paper focuses on inflation developments and the monetary policy framework in the Philippines. It employs a global latent factor model to decompose inflation into common drivers and idiosyncratic factors for a sample of 62 countries. Based on these results, it then models inflation in different regions and presents the single country, single equation model and conducts out of sample forecasts to determine consistency with the medium-term inflation target. The common factors modeling of inflation suggests that inflation in the Philippines depends on world commodity price developments and movements in the US dollar effective exchange rate. However, theory suggests that domestic cyclical conditions also matter. We assess the importance of these variables by estimating a Phillips curve augmented by world commodity prices and the nominal exchange rate for 2000–2013. Using the Akaike-Schwartz criterion, the optimal lag length is found to be four. Given the potential for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, we use the Newey-West standard errors to find the consistent estimates.
Anmerkung:
Description based upon print version of record.
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Cover; CONTENTS; PHILIPPINE INFLATION: HOME GROWN OR IMPORTED?; A. Introduction; FIGURES; 1. Total Inflation, 2000-13; B. Philippines: Inflation Developments and the Monetary Policy Framework; 2. Philippines: Total Inflation and Inflation Target Bounds, 2001:M1-2014:M4; 3. Inflation: Philippines and Its Major ASEAN Neighbors, 2000:Q1-2013:Q4; 4. Countries Operating a Fully Fledged Inflation Targeting Regime and the Current Target Bounds; C. Common-Factor Analysis of Global Inflation; 5. Estimation of Three Latent Common Factors, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3
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6. Common Factor-1 Analysis: the Possible Explanatory Variables, 2001:Q1-2013:Q37. Common Factor-2 Analysis: The Possible Explanatory Variables, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 8. Common Factor-3 Analysis: The Possible Explanatory Variables, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 9. Loading Coefficients of Factor-1; 10. Philippines: CPI Basket, 2013; 11. Loading Coefficients of Factor-2; 12. Loading Coefficients of Factor-3; 13. Variability of Total Inflation Explained by the Common Factors; 14. Philippines: Total CPI and Three Common Factors, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3
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15. Philippines: Actual Total Inflation and Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q316. Philippines: Actual Total Inflation and Idiosyncratic Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 17. Malaysia: Actual Inflation and Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 18. Thailand: Actual Inflation and Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 19. Singapore: Actual Inflation and Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 20. Indonesia: Actual Inflation and Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3; 21. ASEAN-5: Common-Origin Inflation, 2001:Q1-2013:Q3
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D. Modeling Inflation in the Philippines: A Single-Country, Single Equation ApproachTABLE; 1. Philippines: Regression Analysis of Phillips Curve; 22. Estimated Coefficients, Rolling Sample with a Fixed Window of 40 Quarters; 23. Forecast Performance Assessment: Rolling Samples, 8-Quarter-Ahead Out-of-Sample Projection, 1991:Q4-2013:Q4; 24. Philippines: Medium-Term Inflation Forecast; APPENDIX; 1. Data in the Common Inflation Factor Model; REFERENCES; THE PHILIPPINES' EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES; A. Population and Labor Force Dynamics; FIGURES; 1. Projected Working Age Population Ratio in Asia
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2. Philippines: Projected Working Age Population3. Average Employment Growth, 2001-2012; 4. New Entrants to the Labor Force; 5. Annual Deployment of Overseas Filipino Workers; 6. Annual Distribution of OFWs by Major Occupation Group; 7. Detailed Employment by Sector; 8. GDP Versus Employment Growth by Sector; 9. Aggregate GDP and Employment Growth, 2005-13; 10. Employed Persons by Nature of Employment; 11. Daily Minimum Wage Range; TABLES; 1. Philippines: Labor Outcomes; 12. Salary Base Rate Compared to Previous Year, 2012-2013; 13. Annual Unit Labor Cost, 2001-2013
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2. Percentile Ranking in Selected Labor Market Efficiency Indicators
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English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-4843-6429-5
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-322-11013-1
Sprache:
Englisch
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