Umfang:
Online-Ressource (14 p)
Ausgabe:
Barhoumi, Karim ; Ferrara, Laurent ed
Ausgabe:
Online-Ausg.
ISBN:
149830754X
,
9781498307543
Serie:
IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 15/20
Inhalt:
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently
Weitere Ausg.:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Barhoumi, Karim A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781498307543
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.5089/9781498307543.001
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