UID:
edoccha_9958113830002883
Umfang:
1 online resource (116 p.)
Ausgabe:
1st ed.
ISBN:
1-4983-3578-0
,
1-4983-2070-8
,
1-4983-1196-2
Serie:
IMF Staff Country Reports
Inhalt:
KEY ISSUES Context. After three decades of remarkable growth, the economy has been slowing. Much of the slowdown has been structural, reflecting the natural convergence process and waning dividends from past reforms; weak global growth has also contributed. Moreover, since the global financial crisis, growth has relied too much on investment and credit, which is not sustainable and has created rising vulnerabilities. Growth was 7.7 percent in 2013, and is expected to slow to around 7½ percent this year and decline further over the medium term. Focus. The pattern of growth since the global financial crisis is not sustainable and has resulted in rising vulnerabilities. The discussions focused on assessing the risks posed by the continued build-up of vulnerabilities; reforms to unleash new, sustainable engines of growth and reduce vulnerabilities; and how to best manage aggregate demand in this context, as growth is slowing yet risks are still rising. A key takeaway is that to secure a safer development path, accommodative policies need to be carefully unwound, accompanied by decisive implementation of the announced reform agenda to promote rebalancing. The result will be somewhat slower but safer growth in the near term, with the significant long-run benefit of securing more inclusive, environment-friendly, and sustainable growth. Risks. Credit and ‘shadow banking,’ local government finances, and the corporate sector— particularly real estate—are the key, and interlinked, areas of rising vulnerability. In the near term, the risk of a hard landing is still considered low as the government has the capacity to combat potential shocks. However, without a change in the pattern of growth, the hard-landing risk continues to rise and is assessed to be medium-likely over the medium term. Reform agenda. The authorities have announced a comprehensive and ambitious blueprint of reforms. Successful implementation should achieve the desired transformation of the economy, but will also be challenging. Demand management. Reining in credit growth, local government borrowing, and investment will address the risks, but also slow growth. Macro support should be calibrated to allow needed adjustments to take place, while preventing growth from slowing too much. Scenarios and spillovers. With faster adjustment and reform implementation, growth will be somewhat lower in the near term, with moderate spillovers for trading partners. However, in the medium term, income and consumption will both be higher—a result that is good for China and good for the global economy.
Anmerkung:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
""Cover""; ""CONTENTS""; ""SETTING""; ""A. Background""; ""B. Developments and Outlook""; ""RISKS AND BUFFERS""; ""A. Domestic Vulnerabilities""; ""B. Domestic Risk Assessment""; ""C. External Risks""; ""SUSTAINING GROWTH AND MANAGING RISKS""; ""A. Transition to a New Growth Model""; ""B. Addressing Vulnerabilities and Managing Demand""; ""SCENARIOS AND SPILLOVERS""; ""STAFF APPRAISAL""; ""A. Revised Estimate on Augmented Balance and Debt""; ""B. LGFVs: Government Units or Nonfinancial Public Corporations?""; ""C. Technical Details on Augmented Estimates:""; ""BOXES""
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""1. Real Estate: Impact of a Market Correction""""2. Corporate Leverage in China""; ""3. Local Government Finances""; ""4. Rapid Growth in Shadow Banking and Internet Finance""; ""5. International Perspective on China's Credit Boom""; ""6. Fiscal Options: Reducing the Deficit and Promoting Inclusive Growth""; ""7. Fiscal Policy for Greener Growth""; ""8. RMB Internationalization""; ""9. External Assessment""; ""10. Potential Growth and Output Gap""; ""11. Giving Credit for China's Slowdown�The Third-Plenum Reform Blueprint""; ""FIGURES""; ""1. Growth and Inflation""
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""2. Financial Sector Development""""3. Rebalancing""; ""4. Balance of Payments""; ""5. Banking Sector""; ""TABLES""; ""1. Selected Economic Indicators""; ""2. Balance of Payments""; ""3. Indicators of External Vulnerability""; ""4. Monetary Developments""; ""5. General Government Fiscal Data""; ""6. Illustrative Medium-Term Scenario""; ""APPENDICES""; ""I. Summary of Staff Recommendations and Announced Reform Initiatives Following the Third Plenum""; ""II. Progress on Key Recommendations of the FSAP, 2013�2014""; ""III. Augmented Fiscal Data""; ""IV. Risk Assessment Matrix""
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""V. Debt Sustainability Analysis""""CONTENTS""; ""FUND RELATIONS""; ""WORLD BANK-IMF COLLABORATION""; ""RELATIONS WITH THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK""; ""STATISTICAL ISSUES""; ""TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE""
,
English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-4983-0857-0
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-322-07123-3
Sprache:
Englisch
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