UID:
edoccha_9958077841702883
Format:
1 online resource (50 p.)
ISBN:
1-5135-7784-0
,
1-5135-0383-9
Series Statement:
IMF Staff Country Reports
Content:
This Selected Issues paper aims at identifying some of the main channels of transmission through which political instability feeds and foster fragility and provide an estimate of the “fragility gap” that haunts the Bissau-Guinean society. This paper argued that, until today, due to chronic political instability, Guinea-Bissau has been in a costly fragility trap. This analytical piece argues that the major factor behind Guinea-Bissau’s fragility has been the chronic political instability. It also uncovers some of the main transmission channels from political instability to fragility and provides simple estimates about the cost of instability. Estimates based on reasonable assumptions reveal that, considering only Guinea-Bissau’s post-war period, without chronic political instability real GDP per capita could have been at least two thirds higher than its 2013 level. This assessment shows the crucial importance of the security sector reform. It also shows that the current estimated cost of the security sector reform is modest in comparison, since it puts into perspective its monetary costs—which are easy to calculate and mostly frontloaded—vis-à-vis its wide and deep benefits, which are not as explicit and accrue over time.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover; CONTENTS; THE COSTS OF FRAGILITY IN GUINEA-BISSAU: CHRONIC POLITICAL INSTABILITY; A. Introduction; B. Fragility and Conflict; FIGURES; 1. A Graphical Profile of Systemic Political Instability; 2. Chronic Political Instability in Guinea-Bissau; C. Chronic Political Instability and Fragility; 3. Fragility Has Severely Hindered Social Development in Guinea-Bissau; D. Chronic Political Instability: Key Channels of Transmission; 4. Chronic Political Instability and Per Capita GDP Growth; 5. Chronic Political Instability and Fragility: Channels of Transmission
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E. The Cost of Chronic Political Instability6. GDP Per Capita (Constant Prices; 1990 = 100); F. Conclusion; TABLE; 1. Estimates of the Cost of Chronic Political Instability on GDP Per Capita during 2000-13; REFERENCES; EXTERNAL STABILITY ASSESSMENT; A. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook; B. External Sustainability Assessment; C. Non-Price Competitiveness; D. Conclusions; FIGURES; 1. Recent External Developments; 2. External Outlook; 3. External Stability Assessment; 4. Doing Business and Access to Communication Infrastructure; 5. Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
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FINANCIAL STABILITY, INCLUSION, AND DEEPENINGA. Financial Sector Stability; FIGURES; 1. Indicators of Financial Soundness; B. Private Sector Credit Depth; 2. Compliance with Key Prudential Norms, June 2014; 3. Private Sector Growth and Financial Intermediation; 4. Actual and Implied Credit to Private Sector; 5. Factors which Close the Financial Gap; TABLE; 1. Determinants of Financial Inclusiveness Gaps, 2004-13; C. Access to Financial Services; 6. Access to Financial Services; 7. Access of Firms to Financial Services; 8. Cost of Credit in Guinea-Bissau; BOXES
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1. Expanding Mobile Payments: Kenya's M-PESA Experience9. Potential for Mobile Payments; 2. Components of an Oversight Framework for Mobile Payments; 10. Doing Business; D. Conclusions; REFERENCES; ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION; A. Growth, Volatility, and Productivity; FIGURES; 1. Real Growth; 2. Drivers of Economic Growth; B. Recent Trends in the Structure of Output and Exports; 3. Output Diversification; BOXES; 1. Export Diversification and Quality; 4. Export Product and Partner Diversification; C. Fostering Economic Diversification in Guinea-Bissau; 5. Export Quality
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2. Reforms which Foster Structural TransformationD. Conclusions; REFERENCES
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-5135-4151-X
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-5135-2016-4
Language:
English
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