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Format: Online-Ressource (76 p)

Edition: Online-Ausg.

ISBN: 1513530216 , 9781513530215

Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports: Country Report No. 15 / 142

Content: KEY ISSUES Context. Prudent macroeconomic policies have underpinned Colombia’s strong growth during the last few years, which exceeded that of most Latin American peers. Last year, the economy posted real growth of 4.6 percent, and average inflation remained near the center of the target range. Monetary and fiscal policies were mildly supportive of growth. The infrastructure agenda is expected to advance this year. Colombia’s government is engaged in ongoing peace negotiations with the main guerilla group (FARC). Outlook and risks. Starting from a position with slightly positive output gap, Colombia faces a large adverse terms of trade shock. Staff projects growth to slow to 3.4 percent in 2015 and gradually rise toward its potential (around 4¼ percent) over the medium-term supported by the government’s PPP-based infrastructure program and a gradual recovery in oil prices and external demand. Risks are mainly on the downside, including higher interest rates and financial volatility, and a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging economies, and a delayed implementation of the infrastructure program. Macroeconomic policies. Strong headwinds from the severe oil price decline pose significant challenges to the near-term economic outlook. The structural fiscal rule will only partially shield expenditure plans from the oil shock and some fiscal tightening will be required to accommodate lower-than-expected oil revenues. A broadly neutral monetary policy stance will be consistent with achieving the inflation target in the near- term. Medium-term challenges. Colombia’s key challenge will be preserving macroeconomic stability while sustaining strong and inclusive growth through structural reforms. Revenue mobilization is urgently required to protect key social and infrastructure spending while adhering to the medium-term fiscal rule targets amid less favorable external conditions (weaker terms of trade and tighter financing conditions)

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015 ISBN 9781513530215

Language: English

DOI: 10.5089/9781513530215.002

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Format: 1 online resource (132 p.)

ISBN: 1-5135-2743-6 , 1-5135-1132-7

Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports

Content: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Colombia has enjoyed strong growth over the past several years, among the highest in Latin America. Credible fiscal and inflation targeting frameworks have supported sound macroeconomic policy management, which underpinned robust economic performance during the last decade. Social indicators have improved steadily over this period. Public debt remained low. The current account deficit widened to 5.2 percent in 2014, but capital inflows were buoyant. Growth is expected to gradually rise toward its potential over the medium term, supported by the government’s public–private partnership-based infrastructure program and a gradual recovery in oil prices and external demand.

Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation; Contents; Boxes; Figures; Tables; Appendix; Background; 1. Social Indicators; Recent Developments; 2. Recent Economic Developments; 3. Macroeconomic Policies; 4. Recent Macro-Financial Developments; 5. External Sector Developments; 6. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective; 7. Financial Soundness Indicators: Colombia and Other Emerging Markets; Outlook and Risks; Policy Discussions; A. Near-Term Policy Stance: Mitigating the Impact of the Oil Shock , B. Adjusting Fiscal Policy to the Dimmer Medium-Term Outlook1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators; 2a. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US); 2b. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP); 3a. Operations of the Central Government (In percent of GDP); 3b. Operations of the Central Government (In trillions of Col); 4a. Operations of the Combined Public Sector (In percent of GDP); 4b. Operations of the Combined Public Sector (In trillions of Col); 5. Monetary Indicators; 6. Medium-Term Outlook; 7. Financial Soundness Indicators; 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability , 8. Public DSA-Composition of Public Debt and Alternative ScenariosC. Preserving External Stability; D. Safeguarding Macro-Financial Stability; E. Fostering Inclusive Growth; Staff Appraisal; 1. House Prices and Household Debt; 2. Infrastructure Investment in Colombia; 3. Oil Sector Prospects; 4. Oil Shock and Colombia's Fiscal Rule; 5. Recent Tax Reforms and the Road Ahead; 6. External Sector Assessment; 7. Financial Integration: A Network Contagion Analysis; 8. Summary of Progress with Implementation of FSAP Reforms; 9. Colombia's Framework for Supervision and Regulation of Derivatives , 10. Poverty and Income Inequality in the Last Decade9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)-Baseline Scenario; 10. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2011-20; 9. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Test; I. Macro-Financial Stability Assessment; Contents; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex; Fund Relations; World Bank Relations; Inter-American Development Bank Relations; Statistical Issues; A. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance; B. Data Standards and Quality; C. Reporting to STA , IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with ColombiaStatement by Maria Angelica Arbelaez, Alternate Executive Director for Colombia, May 18, 2015; Footnotes; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex; IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Colombia; Statement by Maria Angelica Arbelaez, Alternate Executive Director for Colombia, May 18, 2015 , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-3021-6

Language: English

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (132 p.)

ISBN: 1-5135-2743-6 , 1-5135-1132-7

Series Statement: IMF Staff Country Reports

Content: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Colombia has enjoyed strong growth over the past several years, among the highest in Latin America. Credible fiscal and inflation targeting frameworks have supported sound macroeconomic policy management, which underpinned robust economic performance during the last decade. Social indicators have improved steadily over this period. Public debt remained low. The current account deficit widened to 5.2 percent in 2014, but capital inflows were buoyant. Growth is expected to gradually rise toward its potential over the medium term, supported by the government’s public–private partnership-based infrastructure program and a gradual recovery in oil prices and external demand.

Note: Description based upon print version of record. , Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation; Contents; Boxes; Figures; Tables; Appendix; Background; 1. Social Indicators; Recent Developments; 2. Recent Economic Developments; 3. Macroeconomic Policies; 4. Recent Macro-Financial Developments; 5. External Sector Developments; 6. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective; 7. Financial Soundness Indicators: Colombia and Other Emerging Markets; Outlook and Risks; Policy Discussions; A. Near-Term Policy Stance: Mitigating the Impact of the Oil Shock , B. Adjusting Fiscal Policy to the Dimmer Medium-Term Outlook1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators; 2a. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US); 2b. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP); 3a. Operations of the Central Government (In percent of GDP); 3b. Operations of the Central Government (In trillions of Col); 4a. Operations of the Combined Public Sector (In percent of GDP); 4b. Operations of the Combined Public Sector (In trillions of Col); 5. Monetary Indicators; 6. Medium-Term Outlook; 7. Financial Soundness Indicators; 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability , 8. Public DSA-Composition of Public Debt and Alternative ScenariosC. Preserving External Stability; D. Safeguarding Macro-Financial Stability; E. Fostering Inclusive Growth; Staff Appraisal; 1. House Prices and Household Debt; 2. Infrastructure Investment in Colombia; 3. Oil Sector Prospects; 4. Oil Shock and Colombia's Fiscal Rule; 5. Recent Tax Reforms and the Road Ahead; 6. External Sector Assessment; 7. Financial Integration: A Network Contagion Analysis; 8. Summary of Progress with Implementation of FSAP Reforms; 9. Colombia's Framework for Supervision and Regulation of Derivatives , 10. Poverty and Income Inequality in the Last Decade9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)-Baseline Scenario; 10. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2011-20; 9. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Test; I. Macro-Financial Stability Assessment; Contents; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex; Fund Relations; World Bank Relations; Inter-American Development Bank Relations; Statistical Issues; A. Assessment of Data Adequacy for Surveillance; B. Data Standards and Quality; C. Reporting to STA , IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with ColombiaStatement by Maria Angelica Arbelaez, Alternate Executive Director for Colombia, May 18, 2015; Footnotes; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation; Colombia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation-Informational Annex; IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Colombia; Statement by Maria Angelica Arbelaez, Alternate Executive Director for Colombia, May 18, 2015 , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 1-5135-3021-6

Language: English