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Format: 1 online resource (341 pages)

Edition: 1st ed.

ISBN: 9783030050757

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs

Note: Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1 The Need for Accurate Mortality Forecasts Is Greater Than Ever Before -- 1.2 Determinants and Dynamics of Life Expectancy - Pensions Are Upping the Ante for the Challenge Facing the Art of Projecting... -- 1.3 Cause of Death Forecasts -- 1.4 Period and Cohort Perspectives -- 1.5 Joint Forecasting of Mortality in Similar Populations -- 1.6 From Scenarios to Stochastic Modelling -- 1.7 How Conditions in Early Life Affect Mortality in Later Life -- 1.8 The Increasing Gap in Life Expectancy with Respect to Position in the Income Distribution -- References -- Part I: Current Practice -- Chapter 2: Life Expectancy Is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes - A New Challenge for the Art of Projecti... -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Basic Pension Economics - The Role of Mortality -- 2.3 NDC and FDC Schemes - And Life Expectancy -- 2.4 Itś More Important Than Ever to Project Life Expectancy Accurately -- 2.5 Final Comments -- References -- Chapter 3: Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland -- 3.1 Modeen and Törnqvist -- 3.2 Official Forecasts -- 3.3 Predictive Distribution of Mortality -- 3.4 Applications -- References -- Chapter 4: Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.1 A Brief Description of the Norwegian Population Projection Model -- 4.2 A Short History of Mortality Projections in Norway -- 4.3 Current Methodology of Mortality Projections -- 4.3.1 Target Life Expectancies -- 4.3.2 Difference in Target e0 for Males and Females -- 4.3.3 Life Expectancies in the First Projection Year -- 4.3.4 Path of e0 from the Initial Until the Target Year -- 4.3.5 Slope of e0 in the Target Year -- 4.3.6 Alternative Mortality Assumptions -- 4.3.7 Age Groups -- 4.3.8 Cohort Mortality -- 4.4 Age-Specific Trends in Mortality Rates -- 4.5 Projections of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. , 4.6 Projection Results -- References -- Chapter 5: Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population Projection -- 5.1 Mortality Projection in Sweden -- 5.2 Sharply Lower Mortality in 1950-1999 -- 5.3 Reasons for the Decline in Mortality in 1980-1999 -- 5.4 Higher Average Life Expectancy in 1950-1999 -- 5.5 Future Mortality -- 5.6 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Immediate Future -- 5.7 Assumptions Used in the Forecast for the Longer Term -- 5.8 Mortality Trends over the Period 1950-2050 -- 5.9 Higher Average Life Expectancy -- 5.10 Assumptions Regarding Mortality Trends in Some Countries -- 5.11 Alternative Assumptions -- Chapter 6: Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach -- References -- Chapter 7: Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models - An Epidemiologistś Perspective -- 7.1 Are the Lifespans of Relatives Correlated? -- 7.2 The Relative Effects of Genetic and Environmental Factors on Lifespan -- 7.3 Prediction of Mortality -- 7.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends -- References -- Part II: Probabilistic Models -- Chapter 9: Erroneous Population Forecasts -- 9.1 Forecast Accuracy -- 9.2 Why Population Forecasts Are Inaccurate -- 9.3 Empirical Evidence from Historical Forecasts -- 9.3.1 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Short Than for Long Forecast Durations -- 9.3.2 Forecasts Are More Accurate for Large Than for Small Populations -- 9.3.3 Forecasts of the Old and the Young Tend to Be Less Accurate Than Those of Intermediate Age Groups -- 9.3.4 Accuracy Differs Between Components and Regions -- 9.4 The Expected Accuracy of Current Forecasts -- 9.5 Probabilistic Forecasts: An Alternative to Forecast Variants -- 9.6 Challenges in Probabilistic Population Forecasting -- References. , Chapter 10: Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Binomial and Poisson Models -- 10.3 Random Rates -- 10.4 Handling of Trends -- 10.5 On Judgment and Subjectivity in Statistical Modeling -- 10.6 On the Interpretation of Probabilities -- 10.7 Eliciting Expert Views on Uncertainty -- References -- Chapter 11: An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Stochastic Population Forecasts: Methodology -- 11.2.1 An Analysis of Errors of Past Forecasts -- 11.2.2 Model-Based Estimate of Forecast Errors -- 11.2.3 Expert Judgement -- 11.3 Using Expert Knowledge -- 11.4 Expert Knowledge in the Dutch Stochastic Mortality Forecasts -- 11.5 Conclusions -- Appendix: An Explanatory Model for Dutch Mortality -- References -- Chapter 12: Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stochastic Forecasts -- 12.3 Mortality Forecasts -- 12.4 From Population to Pension Systems and Policy -- References -- Part III: The Linear Rise in Life Expectancy: History and Prospects -- Chapter 13: The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days -- 13.1 Better Forecasts -- 13.2 Continuing Belief in Looming Limits -- References -- Chapter 14: Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Linear Change in Life Expectancy over Long Historical Periods -- 14.3 What Is Fundamental, Age at Death or Risk of Death? -- 14.4 Using These Findings to Improve Mortality Forecasts -- 14.5 Considering National Mortality Change in an International Context -- 14.6 Extensions -- 14.6.1 Heterogeneous Targets -- 14.6.2 Heterogeneous Rates of Convergence -- 14.7 Forecasting Mortality -- References -- Chapter 15: Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series. , 15.1 Why Forecast Life Expectancy? -- 15.2 Changes in Life Expectancy in 19 Industrialized Countries in 1950-2000 -- 15.3 Conditions on the Usefulness of an Auxiliary Series -- 15.4 Model Choice -- 15.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Life Expectancy Convergence Among Nations Since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income -- 16.1 Limits and Convergence in Life Expectancy -- 16.2 The Classic Article: Preston (1975) -- 16.3 Extending the Analysis -- 16.4 New Data -- 16.5 National Effects: A Shopping Analogy -- 16.6 Multilevel Models -- 16.7 Model Results -- 16.8 National Patterns -- 16.9 Convergence -- 16.10 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 17: Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present -- 17.1 Descriptive Overview -- 17.2 Causes -- 17.3 Summary and Discussion -- References -- Part IV: Causes of Death -- Chapter 18: How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update -- 18.1 Extrapolation of Mortality by Cause Risks Absurdity -- 18.2 Would More Sophisticated Methods Be Any Better? -- 18.2.1 A Better Adjustment of Chronological Series of Rates by Age -- 18.2.2 ``Age-Period ́́Adjustment (Lee-Carter Model) -- 18.2.3 ``Age-Period-Cohort ́́Adjustment (APC Model) -- 18.3 The Models Put to the Proof -- 18.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 19: Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden - Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Appro... -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 The Relationships Between Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality -- 19.3 Extrapolating Mortality Trends or Predicting Disease-Specific Causes of Death -- 19.4 Predicting Mortality Based on Potential Elimination of Causes of Death -- 19.5 Predicting Mortality Based on Development of Risk Factors -- 19.6 Methodological Problems in Predicting Mortality Based on Risk Factor Predictions. , 19.7 Future Mortality and Longevity -- 19.8 Implications for the Future -- References -- Chapter 20: How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death Is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts -- 20.1 Mortality Improvement in the UK -- 20.2 Current Methodologies and Research in the UK -- 20.3 Understanding the ``UK Cohort Effect ́́-- 20.4 Modelling Mortality by Cause of Death -- 20.5 Implications and Conclusions -- References -- Part V: Cohort Factors: How Conditions in Early Life Influence Mortality Later in Life -- Chapter 21: A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and M... -- 21.1 The Secular Mortality Decline: Early Life and Cohort Explanations and Their Indicators -- 21.2 Historical Trends and Socioeconomic Mortality Differences in a Life Course and Cohort Perspective -- 21.3 Cohort Effects on Mortality and Mortality Predictions: Indicators and Models -- References -- Chapter 22: Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Famine Early in Life and Later Life Health -- 22.3 Later Life Health for Twins -- 22.4 Twins and Genetic Confounding -- 22.5 Overview -- References -- Chapter 23: The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Data -- 23.3 Methods -- 23.4 Results -- 23.4.1 Differences in Lifespan in the United States, Austria, Denmark and Australia -- 23.4.2 Changes in the Month-of-Birth Pattern over Cohorts in Denmark -- 23.4.3 Changes in the 20-Year Survival Probability by Quarter of Birth in the United States -- 23.5 Discussion -- 23.6 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 24: Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective: Nineteenth Century Sweden and Belgium -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 Models -- 24.3 Data for Scania -- 24.4 Data for Sart. , 24.5 Results.

Additional Edition: Print version: Bengtsson, Tommy Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2019 ISBN 9783030050740

Language: English

Subjects: Medicine , Sociology

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Format: 1 online resource (XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2019.

ISBN: 3-030-05075-0

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,

Content: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".

Note: Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman -- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer -- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho -- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg -- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström -- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel -- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman -- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman -- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer -- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar -- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel -- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee -- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen -- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen -- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili -- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén -- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets -- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith -- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer -- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. . , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-030-05074-2

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

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ISBN: 9783030050757

In: Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting, Cham : Springer, 2019, (2019), Seite 311-317, 9783030050757

In: year:2019

In: pages:311-317

Language: English

URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)

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Format: 1 Online-Ressource (XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color)

ISBN: 9783030050757

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Content: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality

Additional Edition: ISBN 9783030050740

Additional Edition: Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe ISBN 978-3-030-05074-0

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

URL: kostenfrei

UID:

Format: XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color. , online resource.

Edition: 1st ed. 2019.

ISBN: 9783030050757

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,

Content: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".

Note: Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman -- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer -- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho -- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg -- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström -- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel -- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman -- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman -- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer -- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar -- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel -- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee -- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen -- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen -- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili -- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén -- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets -- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith -- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer -- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. .

In: Springer eBooks

Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9783030050740

Additional Edition: Printed edition: ISBN 9783030050764

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2019.

ISBN: 3-030-05075-0

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,

Content: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".

Note: Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman -- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer -- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho -- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg -- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström -- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel -- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman -- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman -- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer -- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar -- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel -- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee -- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen -- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen -- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili -- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén -- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets -- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith -- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer -- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. . , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-030-05074-2

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

UID:

Format: 1 online resource (XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color.)

Edition: 1st ed. 2019.

ISBN: 3-030-05075-0

Series Statement: Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,

Content: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".

Note: Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman -- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer -- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho -- Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg -- Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström -- Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel -- Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman -- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman -- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer -- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar -- SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel -- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee -- Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho -- Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen -- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson -- SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen -- Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili -- Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén -- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets -- SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson -- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith -- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen -- Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer -- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. . , English

Additional Edition: ISBN 3-030-05074-2

Language: English

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7