Umfang:
Online-Ressource
,
v.: digital
Ausgabe:
Online-Ausg. Springer eBook Collection. Earth and Environmental Science Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
ISBN:
9783034605007
Serie:
Pageoph Topical Volumes
Inhalt:
This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.
Anmerkung:
"Previously published in Pure and applied geophysics (PAGEOPH), Volume 167, Nos. 8-9, 2010
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Includes bibliographical references
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Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Content; Introduction; First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment; 1. Introduction; 2. Models; 3. Testing Center; 4. Results; 5. Discussion; REFERENCES; New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre; 1. Introduction; 2. Purpose of the Centre; 3. Test Region and Grid Specifications; 4. Catalogue Completeness Issues; 5. Other Catalogue Quality Issues; 6. Requirements for Model Submission; 7. Tests of Model Performance; 8. Other Considerations; 9. Models Installed in the Testing Centre; 10. Conclusion; Appendix 1; Appendix 2
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REFERENCESThe Area Skill Score Statistic for Evaluating Earthquake Predictability Experiments; 1. Earthquake Forecasting with an Alarm Function; 2. Molchan Diagram for Testing Alarm Functions; 3. Area Skill Score; 4. Area Skill Score Distribution; 5. Moments of the Area Skill Score Distribution; 6. Experimental Discretization; 7. Discussion; 8. Conclusion; Appendix 1: Expected Value of Molchan Trajectory Jump (tk); Appendix 2: Number of Nonzero Sums of a Set's Elements; REFERENCES; Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams; 1. Introduction; 2. The Error Diagram
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3. The Reduced Error Diagrams4. Conclusion and Discussion; Appendix; REFERENCES; Identifying Seismicity Levels via Poisson Hidden Markov Models; 1. Introduction; 2. Method; 3. The Test Area; 4. Results of PHMMs; 5. Conclusions; REFERENCES; Distribution of Seismicity Before the Larger Earthquakes in Italy in the Time Interval 1994-2004; 1. Introduction; 2. The RTL Algorithm and its Improved Versions; 3. Data-Set pre-Processing; 4. RTL Analyses; 5. Alarms and False Alarms; 6. Conclusions; REFERENCES
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Predicting the Human Losses Implied by Predictions of Earthquakes: Southern Sumatra and Central Chile1. Introduction; 2. Method; 3. Calibration; 4. Results; 5. Discussion; 6. Conclusions; REFERENCES; Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results; 1. Introduction; 2. The WGCEP Approach; 3. The Virtual California Simulation Approach; 4. VC and Assimilation of Paleoseismic Data; 5. ''Data Scoring'' Methods; 6. Forecasting Feasibility Methods; 7. Results; 8. Discussion and Conclusions; REFERENCES
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Spatial Separation of Large Earthquakes, Aftershocks, and Background Seismicity: Analysis of Interseismic and Coseismic Seismicity Patterns in Southern California1. Introduction; 2. Earthquake Data; 3. Results; 4. Discussion; 5. Conclusions; REFERENCES; Earthquake Source Zones in Northeast India: Seismic Tomography, Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping; 1. Introduction; 2. Seismotectonics of the Region; 3. Data Source; 4. Data Analysis; 5. Results and Discussion; REFERENCES; Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations
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1. Introduction
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Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 9783034604994
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1007/978-3-0346-0500-7
URL:
Volltext
(lizenzpflichtig)
Mehr zum Autor:
Vere-Jones, David
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