UID:
edoccha_9958120566602883
Format:
1 online resource (41 p.)
ISBN:
1-4623-6784-4
,
1-4552-2835-4
,
1-282-84621-3
,
9786612846212
,
1-4552-0132-4
Series Statement:
IMF working paper ; WP/10/149
Content:
The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
Note:
"June 2010".
,
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Growth and inflation developments; III. Model and Estimation Procedure; A. Model specification; Output Gap Equation; Phillips Curve; Potential output; B. Data; Figure 1. Vietnam: Model variables; C. Estimation method; Prior Parameters; Table 1. Vietnam: Prior and Posterior Model Parameters; Initial values for unobservable components; IV. Results; Posterior coefficients; Figure 2. Vietnam: Variance ratios; Output gap series; Figure 3. Vietnam: Model-based estimates of output gap; Comparison with the HP filter
,
Figure 4. Vietnam: Model-based output gap vs. HP estimatesRobustness to revisions over time; Figure 5. Vietnam: Model-based output gap vs. HP estimates; V. Conclusions; APPENDIX; A. Economic model in the state-space form; B. Bayesian Estimation; Prior parameters; MCMC algorithm; C. Seasonal adjustment of GDP series; Figure 6. Vietnam: First-differences of (logs of) GDP using alternative SA methods; References; Footnotes
Language:
English
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