In:
Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 56, No. 5 ( 2020-05)
Abstract:
It is common in science to use a mental picture or metaphor that simplifies a complex phenomenon. A common metaphor used for a water supply catchment is that of a leaky bucket. When it rains, the bucket fills up; when it does not rain for a while, the bucket empties due to evaporation and water used by trees; and leaking water is like river flow. Computer models based on variants of this metaphor are common and can provide predictions of how much streamflow might occur under future scenarios. This paper explores limitations of the bucket metaphor and associated models. Recently, during a 13‐year drought in Australia, river catchments gradually started to dry up. With each passing year, the depth to groundwater increased gradually as the water used by trees was not replenished by rainfall. We compare this long, slow behavior to that of five commonly used “bucket” models. The models do not show the long, slow drying up—they only show the seasonal ups and downs, and their predictions of streamflow over the drought are poor. This is surprising, and it means we should choose our models carefully and seek out models that can simulate this behavior and its impact on streamflow.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0043-1397
,
1944-7973
DOI:
10.1029/2019WR025286
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Publication Date:
2020
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2029553-4
detail.hit.zdb_id:
5564-5
SSG:
13
SSG:
14
