In:
BMC Medical Research Methodology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 23, No. 1 ( 2023-02-14)
Abstract:
Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth. Methods We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Results Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%. Conclusions Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1471-2288
DOI:
10.1186/s12874-023-01862-3
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2041362-2
