In:
Journal of Clinical Oncology, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), Vol. 35, No. 6_suppl ( 2017-02-20), p. 51-51
Kurzfassung:
51 Background: Currently utilized pre-treatment nomograms for prostate cancer were developed and validated using populations primarily composed of men with low and intermediate risk disease. This study aims to construct a nomogram that predicts for biochemical recurrence (BCR) and metastasis (mets) from a contemporary cohort of men with with NCCN high (HR) and very high risk (VHR) prostate cancer. Methods: From 2005 to 2015, 1,241 men with NCCN HR or VHR prostate cancer were identified from two large academic medical centers. The cohort was divided into training (n = 620) and validation (n = 621) cohorts. Primary endpoints were BCR and mets. Cox multivariable regression was performed to model characteristics and outcomes in the training cohort. Model accuracy was assessed using the time-dependent area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) in the validation cohort. Results: 494 men (245 training and 249 validation) developed BCR, and 123 men (64 training and 59 validation) developed mets, with BCR-free and mets-free probability of 49.0% and 86.5% at 5- years, respectively. Predictive nomograms including age, ethnicity, PSA, Gleason grade, clinical stage, and the number of cores with Gleason 8-10 disease were developed. Models for BCR and mets had AUCs of 0.72 and 0.75. By comparison, the MSKCC preoperative nomogram and CAPRA nomogram provided AUCs of 0.69 and 0.68 for predicting BCR and 0.66 and 0.67 for mets. Conclusions: Individualized risk assessment is imperative for optimal decision making and to design and power clinical trials. The nomograms described here, created from a population exclusively comprised of HR/VHR men, have better discrimination than those previously established on cohorts of primarily low and intermediate risk men, and may represent an ideal way by which oncologic outcomes can be predicted in men with HR or VHR disease.
Materialart:
Online-Ressource
ISSN:
0732-183X
,
1527-7755
DOI:
10.1200/JCO.2017.35.6_suppl.51
Sprache:
Englisch
Verlag:
American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)
Publikationsdatum:
2017
ZDB Id:
2005181-5
