In:
PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 19, No. 6 ( 2023-6-12), p. e1010684-
Abstract:
The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework—human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats—interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the “vectorial capacity matrix,” a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An R package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1553-7358
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.g010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684.r006
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2193340-6
