In:
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2022-6-13), p. e0010509-
Kurzfassung:
Dengue fever (DF) represents a significant health burden in Vietnam, which is forecast to worsen under climate change. The development of an early-warning system for DF has been selected as a prioritised health adaptation measure to climate change in Vietnam. Objective This study aimed to develop an accurate DF prediction model in Vietnam using a wide range of meteorological factors as inputs to inform public health responses for outbreak prevention in the context of future climate change. Methods Convolutional neural network (CNN), Transformer, long short-term memory (LSTM), and attention-enhanced LSTM (LSTM-ATT) models were compared with traditional machine learning models on weather-based DF forecasting. Models were developed using lagged DF incidence and meteorological variables (measures of temperature, humidity, rainfall, evaporation, and sunshine hours) as inputs for 20 provinces throughout Vietnam. Data from 1997–2013 were used to train models, which were then evaluated using data from 2014–2016 by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results and discussion LSTM-ATT displayed the highest performance, scoring average places of 1.60 for RMSE-based ranking and 1.95 for MAE-based ranking. Notably, it was able to forecast DF incidence better than LSTM in 13 or 14 out of 20 provinces for MAE or RMSE, respectively. Moreover, LSTM-ATT was able to accurately predict DF incidence and outbreak months up to 3 months ahead, though performance dropped slightly compared to short-term forecasts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning methods have been employed for the prediction of both long- and short-term DF incidence and outbreaks in Vietnam using unique, rich meteorological features. Conclusion This study demonstrates the usefulness of deep learning models for meteorological factor-based DF forecasting. LSTM-ATT should be further explored for mitigation strategies against DF and other climate-sensitive diseases in the coming years.
Materialart:
Online-Ressource
ISSN:
1935-2735
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.g008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.t002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.t003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010509.r006
Sprache:
Englisch
Verlag:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publikationsdatum:
2022
ZDB Id:
2429704-5
