In:
Économie & prévision, PERSEE Program, Vol. 214, No. 2 ( 2018), p. 1-36
Abstract:
Effects of the CICE : an ex post Evaluation. From an initial amount of more than € 10 billion in 2013, the Competitiveness and Employment Tax Credit (CICE) amounted to nearly € 20 billion p. a. as from 2014. This article endeavours to evaluate the effects of this substantial, widespread, and weakly targeted aid, in 2013 and 2014. We have relied on an exhaustive dataset that matches corporate tax and accounting sources from INSEE, the DGFiP and the ACOSS. TheCICE causal effect is identified by looking at differences in intensity of the level of the tax credit rate. This effect is measured using double and triple difference panel data regressions with instrumental variables. The main conclusion of this study is the weakness of the effects that we highlight. Despite its substantial scale, the CICE had little apparent impact on companies’ earnings or job creations. Our ex post evaluation of the CICE’s impact points to an effect on employment that is one-half the average expected effects calculated in ex ante evaluations. It also points to a cost per job created that is four times higher than in the most pessimistic evaluations of the effects of reduced social security contributions.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0249-4744
DOI:
10.3406/ecop.2018.8237
Language:
French
Publisher:
PERSEE Program
Publication Date:
2018
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2113887-4
