In:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 19 ( 2022-10-06), p. 12827-12855
Abstract:
Abstract. This study analyses the variability and trends of ultraviolet-B
(UV-B, wavelength 280–320 nm) radiation that can cause DNA damage. The variability and trends caused by climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG)
concentrations. The analysis is based on DNA-active irradiance, total ozone,
total cloud cover, and surface albedo calculations with the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel
System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry–climate model (CCM) free-running simulations following the RCP 6.0
climate scenario for the period 1960–2100. The model output is evaluated
with DNA-active irradiance ground-based measurements, satellite SBUV (v8.7)
total-ozone measurements, and satellite MODerate-resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra cloud cover data. The
results show that the model reproduces the observed variability and change
in total ozone, DNA-active irradiance, and cloud cover for the period
2000–2018 quite well according to the statistical comparisons. Between
50∘ N–50∘ S, the DNA-damaging UV radiation is expected to
decrease until 2050 and to increase thereafter, as was shown previously
by Eleftheratos et al. (2020). This change is associated with decreases in
the model total cloud cover and negative trends in total ozone after about
2050 due to increasing GHGs. The new study confirms the previous work by
adding more stations over low latitudes and mid-latitudes (13 instead of 5 stations).
In addition, we include estimates from high-latitude stations with long-term
measurements of UV irradiance (three stations in the northern high latitudes and four stations in the southern high latitudes greater than 55∘). In
contrast to the predictions for 50∘ N–50∘ S, it is shown that DNA-active irradiance will continue to decrease after the year 2050 over high
latitudes because of upward ozone trends. At latitudes poleward of 55∘ N, we estimate that DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 8.2 %±3.8 % from 2050 to 2100. Similarly, at latitudes poleward of 55∘ S,
DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 4.8 % ± 2.9 % after 2050. The
results for the high latitudes refer to the summer period and not to the
seasons when ozone depletion occurs, i.e. in late winter and spring. The
contributions of ozone, cloud, and albedo trends to the DNA-active irradiance
trends are estimated and discussed.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1680-7324
DOI:
10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022
DOI:
10.5194/acp-22-12827-2022-supplement
Language:
English
Publisher:
Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2092549-9
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2069847-1
