UID:
almafu_9960117964202883
Umfang:
1 online resource (xvi, 347 pages) :
,
digital, PDF file(s).
ISBN:
1-108-34030-X
,
1-108-34064-4
,
1-107-58878-2
Inhalt:
Statistical downscaling and bias correction are becoming standard tools in climate impact studies. This book provides a comprehensive reference to widely-used approaches, and additionally covers the relevant user context and technical background, as well as a synthesis and guidelines for practitioners. It presents the main approaches including statistical downscaling, bias correction and weather generators, along with their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Relevant background information on user needs and observational and climate model uncertainties is complemented by concise introductions to the most important concepts in statistical and dynamical modelling. A substantial part is dedicated to the evaluation of regional climate projections and their value in different user contexts. Detailed guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume. Its modular approach makes the book accessible for developers and practitioners, graduate students and experienced researchers, as well as impact modellers and decision makers.
Anmerkung:
Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Jan 2018).
,
Cover -- Half title -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction in a Nutshell -- 1.2 How to Read This Book -- Part I Background and Fundamentals -- 2 Regional Climate -- 2.1 Large- and Planetary-Scale Processes -- 2.2 Regional to Microphysical Processes -- 2.3 Regional Climate Variability and Change -- 2.4 Further Reading -- 3 History of Downscaling -- 3.1 Downscaling in Weather Forecasting -- 3.2 Concerns about Climate Change -- 3.3 Early Downscaling in Climate Research -- 3.4 The 1990s and 2000s -- 3.5 Recent Developments -- 3.6 Further Reading -- 4 Rationale of Downscaling -- 4.1 What Is Downscaling? -- 4.2 Statistical Aspects of Regional Climate -- 4.3 Requirements for a Downscaling Model -- 4.4 Requirements for the Downscaled Model -- 4.5 Further Issues -- 4.6 Further Reading -- 5 User Needs -- 5.1 Context -- 5.2 General Requirements -- 5.3 User Groups -- 5.4 User-Specific Needs -- 5.5 Further Reading -- 6 Mathematical and Statistical Methods -- 6.1 Random Variables and Probability Distributions -- 6.2 Parameter Estimation -- 6.3 Regression Models -- 6.4 Stochastic Processes -- 6.5 Pattern Methods -- 6.6 Further Reading -- 7 Reference Observations -- 7.1 Predictand Data -- 7.2 Predictor Data -- 7.3 Further Reading -- 8 Climate Modelling -- 8.1 Model and Simulation Types -- 8.2 Dynamical Core of General Circulation Models -- 8.3 Numerical Integration -- 8.4 Parameterisations -- 8.5 Performance of Climate Models -- 8.6 Further Reading -- 9 Uncertainties -- 9.1 Types of Uncertainties in Climate Projections -- 9.2 Assessment of Uncertainties -- 9.3 Further Reading -- Part II Statistical Downscaling Concepts and Methods -- 10 Structure of Statistical Downscaling Methods -- 10.1 Perfect Prognosis versus Model Output Statistics.
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10.2 Deterministic and Stochastic Downscaling -- 10.3 Marginal, Temporal and Multivariate Structure -- 10.4 Further Reading -- 11 Perfect Prognosis -- 11.1 Assumptions -- 11.2 Methods -- 11.3 Structural Skill and Limitations of PP Methods -- 11.4 Predictands -- 11.5 Predictors -- 11.6 Model and Predictor Selection -- 11.7 A Cookbook for Developing a PP Model -- 11.8 Further Reading -- 12 Model Output Statistics -- 12.1 Terminology and Relationship with Numerical Weather Prediction -- 12.2 Bias Definition -- 12.3 Assumptions -- 12.4 Methods -- 12.5 Structural Skill and Limitations -- 12.6 Predictors -- 12.7 Bias Correction and Downscaling -- 12.8 Bias Correction and Mislocations -- 12.9 Modification of the Climate Change Signal -- 12.10 A Cookbook for Bias Correction -- 12.11 Further Reading -- 13 Weather Generators -- 13.1 Assumptions -- 13.2 Methods -- 13.3 Structural Skill and Limitations of Weather Generators -- 13.4 Using Weather Generators for Climate Change Projections -- 13.5 Further Reading -- 14 Other Approaches -- 14.1 Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling and Emulators -- 14.2 Separating Bias Correction and Downscaling -- 14.3 Further Reading -- Part III Downscaling in Practice and Outlook -- 15 Evaluation -- 15.1 The Regional Climate Change Context -- 15.2 Evaluation Diagnostics -- 15.3 Standard Evaluation Experiments -- 15.4 Experiments to Evaluate Trends -- 15.5 Cross-Validation -- 15.6 Assessing Added Value -- 15.7 Evaluating Bias Correction Methods -- 15.8 Further Reading -- 16 Performance of Statistical Downscaling -- 16.1 Representing Marginal Aspects -- 16.2 Representing Temporal Aspects -- 16.3 Representing Spatial Aspects -- 16.4 Representing Multivariable Aspects -- 16.5 Representing Extremes -- 16.6 Representing Climate Change -- 16.7 Synthesis -- 16.8 Further Reading -- 17 A Regional Modelling Debate.
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17.1 Are Climate Models Fit for Purpose? -- 17.2 Can Bottom-Up Approaches Reduce Uncertainties? -- 17.3 Further Reading -- 18 Use of Downscaling in Practice -- 18.1 Assessing the Relevance of Climate Change -- 18.2 Assessing the Climate Information Requirements -- 18.3 Choosing the Driving GCMs -- 18.4 Choosing the Downscaling and Bias Correction Options -- 18.5 Interpretation of the Results -- 18.6 Need for Interdisciplinary Co-Operation -- 18.7 Preparing Data for Downscaling Portals -- 18.8 Climate Information Distillation -- 18.9 Ethical Responsibility -- 18.10 Further Reading -- 19 Outlook -- 19.1 Research to Complement Ongoing Downscaling Applications -- 19.2 Progress in Dynamical Modelling -- 19.3 Progress in Statistical Methods -- 19.4 Thinking Out of the Box -- 19.5 Concluding Remarks -- Appendix A: Methods Used in This Book -- Appendix B: Useful Resources -- B.1 Statistical Downscaling Software Packages and Portals -- B.2 Programmes and Initiatives -- B.3 Observational Data Sets -- References -- Index.
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-107-06605-0
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-107-68608-3
Sprache:
Englisch
Fachgebiete:
Geographie
URL:
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783
