UID:
almafu_9960761823602883
Umfang:
1 online resource (77 pages) :
,
digital, PDF file(s).
ISBN:
1-009-03780-3
,
1-009-04006-5
,
1-009-03962-8
Serie:
Cambridge elements. Elements in criminology
Inhalt:
Most criminological theories are not truly scientific, since they do not yield exact quantitative predictions of criminal career features, such as the prevalence and frequency of offending at different ages. This Element aims to make progress towards more scientific criminological theories. A simple theory is described, based on measures of the probability of reoffending and the frequency of offending. Three offender categories are identified: high risk/high rate, high risk/low rate, and low risk/low rate. It is demonstrated that this theory accurately predicts key criminal career features in three datasets: in England the Offenders Index (national data), the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) and in America the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS). The theory is then extended in the CSDD and PYS by identifying early risk factors that predict the three categories. Criminological theorists are encouraged to replicate and build on our research to develop scientific theories that yield quantitative predictions.
Anmerkung:
Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 16 Jun 2022).
,
Cover -- Title page -- Copyright page -- Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The Moffitt Theory -- 1.2 Group-Based Trajectory Modelling -- 1.3 Criminal Career Models -- 1.4 The 'Great Debate' in Criminology -- 2 The Offenders Index (OI) and the Risk/Rate Model -- 2.1 The MacLeod et al. Analyses -- 2.2 The MacLeod et al. Theory -- 2.3 The Age-Crime Curve -- 2.4 Conclusions -- 3 Application to the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) -- 3.1 The CSDD -- 3.2 CSDD Risk Analysis -- 3.3 CSDD Rate Analysis -- 3.4 Theoretical Offender Category Allocation -- 3.5 Age-Conviction Analysis -- 3.6 Conclusions -- 4 Childhood Prediction of Risk/Rate Categories in the CSDD -- 4.1 Allocating Cases to Risk/Rate Categories -- 4.2 Childhood Risk Factors -- 4.3 Risk Factors Predicting Risk/Rate Categories -- 4.4 Logistic Regression Analyses -- 4.5 Identifying Risk/Rate Categories from the Risk Factors -- 4.6 Conclusions -- 5 Application to the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS) -- 5.1 The PYS -- 5.2 PYS Risk Analysis -- 5.3 PYS Rate Analysis -- 5.4 PYS Age-Conviction Analysis -- 5.5 Conclusions -- 6 Childhood Prediction of Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS -- 6.1 Allocating Cases to Risk/Rate Categories -- 6.2 PYS Risk Factors -- 6.3 Risk Factors Predicting Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS Youngest Cohort -- 6.4 Logistic Regression Analyses (PYS Youngest Cohort) -- 6.5 Prospective Identification of Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS Youngest Cohort -- 6.6 Risk Factors Predicting Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS Oldest Cohort -- 6.7 Logistic Regression Analyses (PYS Oldest Cohort) -- 6.8 Prospective Identification of Risk/Rate Categories in the PYS Oldest Cohort -- 6.9 Conclusions -- 7 Final Conclusions -- 7.1 Testing the Theory -- 7.2 Risk Factors for HH, HL, and LL Males.
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7.3 The Next Generation of Criminal Career Theories -- 7.4 Implications for Theory and Policy -- References -- Acknowledgements.
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-009-01806-X
Sprache:
Englisch
URL:
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039628
