UID:
edoccha_9958064572202883
Umfang:
1 online resource (53 p.)
ISBN:
1-4755-5023-5
,
1-4755-2112-X
Serie:
IMF Working Papers
Inhalt:
Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.
Anmerkung:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Country Background; III. A Model-Based Analysis of Mongolia's Natural Resource Revenues; A. Model; B. Calibration: Applying to Mongolia; C. Assumptions: Natural Resource Revenue and Investment Paths; Figure 1. Assumptions: Resource Output and Public Investment Paths; D. Efficiency and Absorptive Capacity; Figure 2. Projection of Public Debt and Sovereign Welfare Fund; Figure 3. Paths of Other Variables; Figure 4. Robustness Check: Different Efficiency; IV. Simulation Results and Policy Implication; A. Baseline Scenario
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B. Adverse Scenario: Negative Resource ShockC. Robustness Check; V. Conclusions; VI. Appendix; VII. References; Table 1. Calibration of Key Parameters; Footnotes
,
English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-4755-7063-5
Sprache:
Englisch
