UID:
edoccha_9959232459302883
Format:
1 online resource (43 pages)
ISBN:
1-4843-0124-2
,
1-4843-0131-5
Series Statement:
IMF Working Papers
Content:
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Note:
Cover -- CONTENTS -- Abstract -- I. Introduction: Energy Transitions -- II. Transportation Revolution and the Return of the Electric Car -- A. Horse vs. Car: A Historical Parallel -- B. Diffusion Model for Electric Cars -- C. Disappearing Hurdles on the Road to Motor-Vehicle Displacement -- D. Electric Cars and Adoption of Other Technologies -- III. Generating Electricity: The Sweep of Renewables -- IV. Oil as the New Coal? -- V. Concluding Remarks -- VI. Appendix -- Figures -- Figure 1. Primary Energy Consumption Shares (USA, 1875-2015) -- Figure 2. Natural Gas, Petroleum, Renewables Over Time (USA) -- Figure 3. Oil Share of Primary Energy Use, Sectoral (USA) -- Figure 4. Electric Cars and Motor Vehicles (USA) -- Figure 5. Motor Vehicles vs. Horses (USA) -- Figure 6. Electric Vehicle Penetration Projection, Method I -- Figure 7. Electric Vehicle Penetration Projection, Method II -- Figure 8. Electric and Motor Vehicles Adoption and Prices -- Figure 9. Global Consumer Technology Penetration -- Figure 10. Global Spread of Smartphones -- Figure 11. Global Diffusion: Power Technologies -- Figure 12. Comparing Transitions, Excluding Transport (USA) -- Figure 13. The Decline and Fall of Coal (USA) -- Figure 14. The Rise of Oil (USA) -- Figure 15. Quantities and Prices of Coal and Oil (USA, 1875-2015) -- Figure 16. Global Oil Demand Projections, Method I -- Figure 17. Global Oil Demand Projections, Method II -- Figure 18. Convergence of Energy Prices in the U.S.? -- Tables -- Table 1. Transition Rates by Country -- References.
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-4843-0112-9
Language:
English
