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Umfang: 1 online resource (466 pages)

Ausgabe: First edition.

ISBN: 3-031-48553-X

Anmerkung: Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Overview of This Book on Strategic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty -- Why This Book on Uncertainty? -- Notable Takes on Uncertainty -- Further Preliminaries -- More Notable Takes on Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as Good or Bad or Both? -- Examples of the Bads of Uncertainty -- Examples of the Goods of Uncertainty -- Effective Management of Uncertainty -- Our Perspective (Business-Based, Applying Western/Democratic Values) -- Delineation from Risk (and Probability) -- Hence, Non-Mathematicalness -- The Heterogeneity of Uncertainty -- Decision-Making and Knowns -- Creating the Decision-Making Model -- Complications -- Big Questions -- Philosophy of Science -- Goals -- Resistance (…Is Eventually Futile) -- Why This Book Now -- Plan of Analysis -- References -- 2 Confusion over Uncertainty in Decision-Making -- Why Clarity Is Important -- What Confusion Exists -- What Terms Are Confused -- Sources of Confusion -- How to Unconfuse -- References -- 3 Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Why Definitional Precision Is Important -- Classic Definitions -- Uncertainty as the Inability to Assign Probabilities -- Uncertainty as Unknown Cause-and-Effect Relationships -- Uncertainty-as-Unpredictability -- Knight's Definition of Uncertainty -- Ellsberg's Definition of Ambiguity -- Alternative Definitions of Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as Unknowability -- Uncertainty as Novelty -- Uncertainty as Non-Optimizability -- Uncertainty as Doubt -- Contrasts to Full Information -- The Amount of Uncertainty Question -- The Epistemological Question -- References -- 4 Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Why the Causes of Uncertainties are Important -- Reminder-How a Cause's Symptoms Can Manifest in a Decision to Make it Non-Optimizable. , Sources of Uncertainty Related to the Problem Itself -- Sources in the Problem Characteristics -- Novelty/Uniqueness -- Complexity of Phenomena -- Non-linear Dynamic Systems and Chaos -- Ill-Defined Problems -- Relationships with Time -- Other (Pointed) Issues -- Sources in the Problem's External Context (Exogenous to the Decision-Maker) -- New Technology -- The Inherent Randomness of Nature -- Luck [as Randomness for Humans] -- Inconsistent (Often Rivalrous) External Human Behaviors -- Dynamic Aspects of Inconsistent External Human Behaviors (as Unpredictable Reactions) -- Conflicting External Reports -- Sources in the Problem's Internal Context (Endogenous to the Decision-Maker) -- Change and Its Consequences (Inside) -- Communications Issues -- Personal Artefacts and Choices -- Biases and Errors in Statistical Analysis -- Blissful Ignorance and Dangerous Implicit Assumptions -- Limits of Analysis -- General Limits to Problem Analysis -- Laws and Regulations -- Measurement Error -- Computational Limits over Current Facts -- Mathematical Limits -- System-atic Errors -- Incomplete Modeling -- Empirical Non-Verifiability -- Organizational Limits to Problem Analysis -- Lack of Investigatory Time -- Lack of Other Investigatory Resources -- Human Limits -- Lack of Control -- Individual Limits to Problem Analysis -- Lack of Expertise -- Epistemic Issues/Decision-Maker Weakness -- References -- 5 Span of Effects of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- The Impacts of Uncertainty -- Impacts on Entities -- On Survival -- On Feelings -- On Challenges -- On Organization -- On Compensation for Experiencing Uncertainty -- On Rational Behaviors and Choices -- Impacts on Entity Reactions -- On Behaviors to Reduce or Accept Uncertainty -- On Behaviors to Explore or Exploit Uncertainty -- Impacts on Understanding -- Impacts on Theorizing -- Impacts on Lab Studies. , Impacts on Communications and Measures -- References -- 6 Negative Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- Costly Uncertainties -- Negative Effects of Uncertainty -- Drivers of Negative Effects -- Contexts for Negative Effects -- Dealing with Negative Effects -- References -- 7 Positive Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making) -- The Existential Positive Effects of Uncertainty -- Uncertainty as a Signal of Potential Rewards -- Conceptual Benefits from Uncertainty -- Real Benefits from Uncertainty -- Conditions for Benefits -- Who Benefits -- References -- 8 Optimal Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- Why a Goldilocksian 'Amount' of Uncertainty Can Exist -- At What Level of Analysis? -- For What Ends? -- How to Generate It -- References -- 9 Measures of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making) -- The Importance of Measuring Uncertainty and Its Characteristics -- Approaches to Measurement -- Practical Measures -- Conceptual Measures -- Immeasurability -- References -- 10 Multi-Dimensionality of Uncertainty -- Why Uncertainty Is Multi-Dimensional -- Which Dimensions? -- Bases for These Dimensions -- Dealing with Multi-Dimensionality -- References -- 11 Uncertainty's Connections to Entrepreneurship -- Why Uncertainty Connects to Entrepreneurship -- Which Uncertainties and Activities? -- Drivers of the Entrepreneurship Connection -- The Context of the Entrepreneurship Connection -- Managing the Entrepreneurship Connection -- References -- 12 Uncertainty's Connections to Strategy -- Why Uncertainty Connects to Strategy -- Uncertainty and Theories of the Firm (and of Firm Rents) -- Top Management's Focus on Uncertainty -- Uncertainty and Contracting -- Deeper into Uncertainty -- Drivers of the Strategy Connection -- The Context of the Strategy Connection -- Uncertainties and Activities -- Managing the Strategy Connection -- References. , 13 Uncertainty's Connections to Creativity, Art, and Music -- Connecting Uncertainty to Creativity -- Connecting Uncertainty to Art and Music -- Why the Connections Exist -- Philosophical Questions Raised -- References -- 14 Uncertainty's Connections to Spirituality/Religion -- Connecting Uncertainty to Spirituality and Religion -- Connecting Spirituality to Decision-Making under Uncertainty -- Importance of Uncertainty in Religion -- Drivers of Uncertainty in Religion -- Offering Some Balance -- References -- 15 Uncertainty's Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology, and Evolution -- Connecting Uncertainty to Curiosity -- Connecting Uncertainty to Neurobiology -- Connecting Uncertainty to Cognition -- Connecting Uncertainty to Evolution -- Drivers of the Connections -- Philosophical Implications -- References -- 16 Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty -- Identifying the Failures to Engage -- Drivers of the Failures -- Why Probability-Based Approaches Fail -- How That Failure Extends to Subjective Expected Utility -- Alternatives -- References -- 17 A New Typology of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making) -- Introduction to a New Typology -- Reminders About the Main Assumption and Definition -- The Plan for This Chapter -- Past Uncertainty Types and Labels -- Incomplete Information -- Knightian Uncertainty -- Ellsbergian Ambiguity -- Ignorance -- Aleatory Uncertainty -- Unknown Unknowns -- Equivocality -- Vagueness -- Epistemic Uncertainty -- Other Potential Types -- The New Primary Typology -- Cleaning Up the Minor Issues Involved -- The Relevant Secondary Typology -- Step One-Assessing the Background Facts -- State Uncertainty/ Uncertainty about the Present Reality -- Uncertainty about the Past -- Step Two-Understanding the Goals -- Step Three-Identifying the Stakeholders -- Step Four-Recognizing All Possible Relevant Options/Choices. , Step Five-Identifying All Possible Outcomes (Relevant to the Choices) -- Step Six-Calculating the (Monetary) Payoffs of the Outcomes -- Step Seven-Considering the Ethics and Values of the Outcomes [separated from Goals] -- Step Eight-Calculating the (Overall) Worth of the Outcomes [Utilities] -- Step Nine-Assigning Probabilities to the Uncontrollable Outcome-Affecting Events -- Step Ten-Including Any Timing Issues Involved in the Process -- Step Eleven-Applying the Relevant Constraints -- A Line of Demarcation in the Decision-Making Process -- Step Twelve-Identifying the Dynamic Links in the Extended Process -- Step Thirteen-Assessing the Dynamics of Competition -- Unknown Effects on Rival Targets -- Unknown Responses of Targets -- Unknown Target Intensions -- Unknown Target Decision Constraints -- A Tertiary Typology -- Dimensions of Specifying What Is Uncertain -- Dimensions of Specifying Why the Uncertainty Exists -- Dimensions of Specifying Where the Uncertainty Exists -- Revisiting a Selection of Uncertainty Sources to Highlight the Separation from Types -- Measurement Uncertainty -- Model Uncertainty -- Environmental Uncertainty -- Endogenous Uncertainty and Knowable Unknowns -- Supplement on Knightian Uncertainty Issues -- Knight's Model as a Theory of Rents -- The Three Dangers of the Knightian Model -- The Premise Danger -- The Implication Danger -- The Definition Danger -- Discussion -- References -- 18 Best Treatments and Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making) -- Introduction to Uncertainty Treatment -- Part One-Treating the Treatable Uncertainties -- Bucket One-Uncovering Unknowns via Discovery, Search, and Monitoring -- Bucket Two-Uncovering Unknowns via Experimentation, Experience, Analysis, and Modeling -- Experimentation -- Sensemaking and Modeling -- Experience and Alertness -- Inference from Big Data. , Other Active Learning Approaches.

Weitere Ausg.: ISBN 9783031485527

Sprache: Englisch