UID:
edocfu_9958078118802883
Umfang:
51 p. :
,
ill.
Ausgabe:
1st ed.
ISBN:
1-4623-4264-7
,
1-4518-7344-1
,
1-282-84405-9
,
9786612844058
,
1-4527-7932-5
Serie:
IMF working paper ; WP/09/197
Inhalt:
Household savings rates in the United States have recently crept up from all-time lows. Some have suggested that a shift toward frugality will hamper GDP growth-the Keynesian "paradox of thrift." We estimate that households compensate for a fall in their asset income by saving more out of their labor income, dollar-for-dollar. In the wake of the crisis, our model predicts that such primary savings will increase, but only temporarily and modestly, as household assets stabilize. As savings flows gradually accumulate, they help rebuild corporate net worth and hence firms' capacity to make capital investments. A timely return to pre-crisis levels of capital investment would require that U.S. households save substantially more than the model predicts, starting now. Hence, we should fret that our savings rates may be too low.
Anmerkung:
"Middle East and Central East Department ; IMF Institute".
,
"September 2009".
,
Intro -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Indicators of Household Wealth and Saving in the United States. -- III. An Inverse Relationship between Primary Savings and Asset Income? -- IV. The Estimated Relation Between Primary Saving and Asset Income -- V. Prospective Analysis: Alternative Scenarios for Savings and Assets -- A. Forward Simulations -- B. Stochastic Simulation (No Change to Parameters) -- C. Alternative "New Frugality" Scenarios: Structural Shifts In The Model -- VI. Pleasant Pigovian Accounting? Further Reflections on the Paradox of Thrift -- A. An Accounting Model -- B. Prospective Paths for Consumer Expenditures -- C. Capital Investment -- VII. Summary, Conclusions, and Directions for Future Work -- References -- Appendixes -- A. Data Definitions -- B. Assessing Transversality: Primary Savings and the Level of Assets -- C. Estimation Details -- 1. Model Setup -- 2. Coefficient Estimates: Long-Run and Short-Run -- D. Pleasant Pigovian Accounting in an Open Economy -- Appendix Tables -- A.1. Unit Root Tests for Variables in Levels and Differences -- A.2. Cointegration Analysis (Johansen (1990) Test -- A.3. Hypothesis Tests, Restrictions on Cointegrating Coefficients -- A.4. Summary of Estimates, VECM System (3') -- Tables -- 1. United States: Household Assets and Liabilities Averages by Decade -- 2. United States: Household Assets and Liabilities Averages by Decade -- 3. United States: Household Assets and Liabilities Changes between Decades -- 4. Summary of Estimates, Equations (4a), (4b), (4c) -- 5. Summary of Alternative Savings Scenarios -- 6. Summary of Estimates, Equation (12) -- 7. Summary of Estimates, Equation (13) -- Figures -- 1. Household Net Wealth and Personal Savings (in Percent of GDP) -- 2. United States: Real Rates of Return on Assets Percent per Annum, Yearly.
,
3. United States: Saving, Alternative Measures (In Percent of Disposable -- 4. Impulse Response Functions, VECM System (3() -- 5. Primary Savings (S*)-Stochastic Simulations US Billion -- 6. Net Worth (A, Upper Chart) and Primary Savings (S*, Lower Chart), -- 7. U.S. Savings: Corporate vs. Household Savings -- 8. US: Capital Formation and Net Wealth -- 9. US Household Consumption -- 10. Fixed Capital Formation (FC), Stochastic Simulations (US Billions) -- 11. Total Fixed Investment (Billions of 2000 US) -- Boxes -- 1. Recent Views on U.S. Savings and the Paradox Of Thrift in the Popular and Financial Press.
,
English
Weitere Ausg.:
ISBN 1-4519-1767-8
Sprache:
Englisch
