UID:
edocfu_9958080562602883
Format:
1 online resource (59 p.)
ISBN:
1-5135-1621-3
,
1-5135-2435-6
Series Statement:
IMF Working Papers
Content:
The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
Note:
Description based upon print version of record.
,
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Figures; Appendix; I. Introduction; II. 'Asiaphoria' Meets 'The Myth of Asia's Miracle'; III. Estimating Potential Output and Output Gap in China; A. Definitions and Methodology; B. Results; 1. Univariate Filters; 2. Multivariate Filters; 3. Production Function Filter; 4. 'Finance-Neutral' Filter; C. Discussion; IV. Cross-Country Perspective: Catching Up with Asian Tigers?; 5. Catching Up Process Relative to Fast-Growing Asia; 6. GDP Growth and Predicted; 7. Contributions to Growth and Investment Shares; 8. Contribution to GDP Growth
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V. ConclusionsMethodology; A. Univariate Filters; B. Multivariate Filters Linking Output Gap to Inflationary Pressures; C. Multivariate Filter with the Addition of a Production Function; D. Multivariate Filter to Estimate 'Finance-Neutral' Output Gap; E. Production Function Approach for Cross-Country Analysis; References; Footnotes
,
English
Additional Edition:
ISBN 1-5135-0464-9
Language:
English
