Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)
,
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ISBN:
9781484324790
Serie:
IMF working paper WP/17, 220
Inhalt:
This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with the highest incomes, prospects for market access, and at 'moderate' risk of debt distress. This was often driven by overly-ambitious fiscal and/or growth forecasts, and projected 'residuals'. When we control for unanticipated shocks, we find that biases remain evident, driven in part by optimism regarding government fiscal reaction functions and expected growth dividends from investment
Weitere Ausg.:
Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe Mooney, Henry Debt Sustainability Analyses for Low-Income Countries: An Assessment of Projection Performance Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017 ISBN 9781484324790
Sprache:
Englisch
Schlagwort(e):
Arbeitspapier
;
Graue Literatur
DOI:
10.5089/9781484324790.001
URL:
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